While the presidential primary races are still far off, it seems voters have decided for themselves that either Mitt Romney or Governor Perry are going to be the GOP presidential primary winners.
In a new poll conducted by Zogby, the numbers indicate that most voters think Romney will win.
Regardless of whom you intend to vote for, who do you think will get the nomination?
| Candidate | GOP Primary Voters |
| Mitt Romney | 37% |
| Rick Perry | 17% |
| Michele Bachmann | 10% |
| Ron Paul | 3% |
| Tim Pawlenty | 2% |
| Chris Christie | 2% |
| Sarah Palin | 2% |
| Herman Cain | 1% |
| Jon Huntsman Jr. | 1% |
| Newt Gingrich | <1% |
| Rick Santorum | <1% |
| Other | 8% |
| Not sure | 25% |
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding
The voters have fallen into a rut. Money and name recognition are playing into the equation right now.
When you look at the data, you see Michele Bachmann is in the lead with Herman Cain following.
If the Republican primary for President were held today, for whom would you vote?
| Candidate | June 30 | June 21 |
| Michele Bachmann | 34% | 24% |
| Herman Cain | 15% | 15% |
| Mitt Romney | 14% | 15% |
| Ron Paul | 11% | 13% |
| Rick Santorum | 7% | 5% |
| Tim Pawlenty | 4% | 6% |
| Jon Huntsman Jr. | 4% | 2% |
| Newt Gingrich | 2% | 2% |
| Gary Johnson | <1% | 2% |
| Fred Karger | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% | 4% |
| Not sure | 8% | 13% |
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding
There is clearly a disconnect between the voter’s choice and who they think will win.
When the respondents were asked who they would never vote for, Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann have the least amount of voters who would not vote for them.
Which of the following candidates would you never vote for? (May choose more than one.)
| Candidate | GOP Primary Voters |
| Newt Gingrich | 46% |
| Jon Huntsman Jr. | 43% |
| Ron Paul | 38% |
| Fred Karger | 33% |
| Gary Johnson | 33% |
| Sarah Palin | 29% |
| Mitt Romney | 26% |
| Rick Santorum | 23% |
| Tim Pawlenty | 17% |
| Rick Perry | 17% |
| Michele Bachmann | 16% |
| Herman Cain | 15% |
| Chris Christie | 12% |
| Other | 6% |
| Not sure | 14% |
Looking at the recent Gallup poll, you see a same pattern show up.
In the Gallup poll, Herman Cain while still having a low name recognition, he still remains at the top of the positive intensity score of all the listed GOP presidential candidates.
What is more impressive is his favorable and unfavorable numbers.
He has the best favorable numbers of all the GOP candidates.
The translation in the data is this: Likability = Electability.
The Herman Cain team has to make part of the Herman Cain brand, his likability makes him highly electable.
The issues on foreign policy fade and all Cain has to do is point to the other candidates with exception of Huntsman and show they lack any meaningful foreign policy leadership skills.
And that he is formulating opinions on the matter.
Where Cain excels, it is with business and problem solving.
And you get an idea that when he is ready to make a call on an issue, he will do so when he is ready.
He made the one gaffe on the right-of-return with Israel and owned up to the mistake.
That honesty is what is driving people to like him.
As the percentage in name recognition continues to increase, it seems the trend of Gallup’s positive intensity with Cain will continue with the same trend.
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