Thomas Lamb  ·  June 11, 2026  ·  Part X — The Fish Have Moved

The Fish
Have Moved.

Not moving. Not forecast to move.
Already gone. 145 miles north.
80 days earlier. The season itself has relocated.
This is the biological record of what the ocean has done.

Everything in this series — the submarine volcanic heat flux, the western Pacific warm pool, the El Niño declaration, the AMOC weakening, the Gulf Stream's SW-NE axis shift, the 126 years of North Pacific SST data — is the explanation for something the fish already recorded with their bodies.

Fish don't have political agendas. They don't read climate models. They don't attend conferences. They have one instruction, refined over 500 million years of evolution: follow your thermal envelope. When the water they need moves, they move with it. They have been doing this through every ice age, every warm period, every mass extinction event in Earth's history.

The fish are not in crisis. They are doing exactly what they have always done. The crisis belongs to the civilisation that was built on the assumption that they would stay.

The Numbers — What Has Already Happened

Average Northward Shift

17 miles

157 marine species · 1989–2019 · EPA/NOAA trawl survey data

Northeast US Key Species

145 miles

Lobster · red hake · black sea bass · average northward shift since 1970s

Bluefin Tuna Season Shift

80 days

Earlier off Massachusetts in 2019 vs 2002. The season itself has relocated.

Pacific Migration Rate

72 km/dec

Marine species poleward rate · 10× faster than land species

The Ratchet — 54 Years of Fish Recording Every Click

The Gulf Stream shifts northward following every El Niño event — documented in Nature since 1998. Previously the AMOC pulled it back. Now the AMOC is weakened. Each El Niño pushes the Gulf Stream further north. Each time it returns to a position slightly north of where it started. The fish record every click.

1970s

El Niño 1972–73, 1976–77 · 1977 Regime Shift

Black sea bass entering southern New England for first time. Surf clams beginning retreat from Mid-Atlantic. Fishermen notice but assume it's temporary.

1980s

El Niño 1982–83 Super · 1989 Regime Shift

Surf clams nearly gone from Delaware, Virginia, Maryland. Pacific salmon runs reorganise. Gulf of Alaska ecosystems destabilise. Red Mullet appearing in North Sea.

1990s

El Niño 1997–98 Super

Triggerfish and grouper from Gulf of Mexico appearing in Mid-Atlantic. Black sea bass past Cape Cod establishing in Gulf of Maine. Mahi mahi captured near San Francisco.

2008 ⚡

AMOC enters reduced state — the ratchet loses its return spring

From this point, the Gulf Stream cannot return as far south after each El Niño push. The biological baseline shifts permanently. Species that moved north in the 1990s stop returning south in winter.

2010s

El Niño 2015–16 Super · "The Blob" 2013–15

Atlantic mackerel expanding into Norwegian Sea. Bluefin tuna arriving 80 days earlier off Massachusetts. 11 boreal species recorded in Barents Sea. Pacific cod begins collapse in Gulf of Alaska. Walleye pollock shifts 41 miles north in Bering Sea.

2020s

El Niño 2023–24 Strong · Gulf Stream farthest north in records

Blue sharks shifting 30–40km northward per 1°C temperature increase. Tiger sharks expanding seasonal range in northwest Atlantic. Red king crab and snow crab altering benthic communities across Arctic. Japan mackerel catch collapses to 20–30% of 2015 levels.

2026 ▲

NOAA + JMA declare Super El Niño today · AMOC at weakest in modern records

Mahi mahi off San Francisco. Marlin off Washington state. Yellowfin tuna in Alaska. Tropical species in northern Japan waters first time ever. Saxitoxin killing fur seals on Pribilof Islands. 11 Arctic boreal species expanding. The ratchet clicks — with no return spring left.

The fish recorded every click of the ratchet. Decade by decade. Species by species. 145 miles of northward movement documented in federal trawl surveys since the 1970s. The data exists. The fish wrote it.

The Human Parallel — 500 Million Years of the Same Story

Fish have been migrating with ocean temperature shifts for 500 million years — through every ice age, every warming event, every mass extinction. The fish that survived the Permian extinction, when 96% of marine species were wiped out, survived because they moved. Migration is not their crisis response. It is their fundamental operating mode.

Humans did the same thing. For most of our species' existence we were coastal migrants — following fish routes from Africa along the Indian Ocean coast to Southeast Asia, north to Japan and Beringia, down the Pacific coast to the Americas. The archaeological and genomic record confirms it. Early human migration routes followed ocean conditions precisely — moving when the fish moved, stopping when the fish were abundant, moving again when conditions shifted.

The system was in balance because both species were mobile. The fish moved with the thermal envelope. The humans moved with the fish. Resources shifted but persisted. The relationship between coastal human populations and their marine food sources was not fixed — it was dynamic, seasonal, migratory. Exactly as the ocean required.

Three Communities — Fixed While the Fish Move

St. Paul Island, Alaska

400 UNANGAX̂ RESIDENTS · PRIBILOF ISLANDS

Their ancestors were seasonal coastal migrants — following seals and fish between camps. The US government forced settlement near schools in the late 19th century. A fixed community formed. By the 1970s it was permanent.

Today: northern fur seals dying from saxitoxin — first time in recorded history. The fish the seals ate have moved. The toxin-producing algae followed the warm water. The 400 people on St. Paul Island cannot follow.

Their ancestors would have moved. They cannot.

Sanriku Coast, Japan

FISHING COMMUNITIES · NORTHEASTERN JAPAN

Built on the meeting of the warm Kuroshio and cold Oyashio currents — one of the most productive fishing grounds on Earth. Infrastructure, ports, processing plants, cultural identity built over centuries around specific species in specific waters.

Today: mackerel catch at 20–30% of 2015 levels. Kuroshio at farthest north position in modern records. Oyashio retreating. The productivity that built those communities has moved northeast. The communities cannot follow.

The fish moved. The ports stayed.

Pacific Island Nations

KIRIBATI · TUVALU · FSM · PALAU · MARSHALL ISLANDS

Entire national revenues built on tuna Exclusive Economic Zones. The EEZ boundary is fixed at 200 nautical miles from a fixed island. The tuna — highly sensitive to ENSO — migrates east during El Niño, out of the EEZ, beyond the boundary that defines national income.

Today: NOAA declared the strongest El Niño in a generation. Tuna stocks moving east now. The fish cross the EEZ boundary. The revenue disappears. The nation's border stays where it was drawn.

The fish don't respect EEZ boundaries.

The Deeper Point — A Mobile Ocean and a Sedentary Civilisation

The fish are not the crisis. They are doing exactly what they have always done — following the thermal envelope that their physiology requires, tracing the boundary between warm and cold water as it migrates with the ocean climate. They have no choice. They have no politics. They have only the imperative encoded in 500 million years of evolution: move or die.

The crisis belongs to the civilisation that built permanent infrastructure — ports, processing plants, fishing quotas, national EEZ boundaries, subsistence communities, cultural identities — on the assumption that the fish would stay where they had always been. That assumption was always provisional. The ocean has always been mobile. The thermal envelope has always shifted with climate. Human coastal civilisations simply built during a period of relative stability and called it permanence.

The period of relative stability is ending. The ratchet has been clicking since 1977. The fish have been recording each click. 145 miles of northward movement in federal survey data. 80 days of seasonal shift in tuna arrival. 72 kilometres per decade across the Pacific. The biological record is unambiguous and it has been available in peer-reviewed literature for decades.

The fish moved because the ocean told them to. The ocean moved because the Pacific told it to. The Pacific moved because the submarine volcanic system beneath it has been expressing itself for millions of years — and nobody built it into a climate model.

The Framework Closed — From Mantle to Migration

The Complete Chain — Every Step Documented

▸

Earth's mantle generates heat — expressed through submarine volcanic and hydrothermal systems beneath the western Pacific volcanic arc

↓

▸

Western Pacific Warm Pool builds — the warmest ocean on Earth above the most volcanically active seafloor on Earth

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▸

El Niño declared today — Kelvin wave drains warm pool eastward. NOAA + JMA simultaneous declaration. Strongest event in a generation.

↓

▸

Pacific reorganises global climate — Walker Circulation shifts. Arctic warming accelerates. Greenland melt adds freshwater to North Atlantic.

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▸

AMOC weakens — Gulf Stream shifts SW-NE. 219km northward displacement possible. Cold eddy upwelling distributed across Atlantic. Carbon pump weakening.

↓

▸

Thermal envelopes migrate — Japan-to-Alaska corridor warming. North Atlantic restructuring. Pacific Island EEZs losing tuna. Arctic losing its buffer.

↓

▸

The fish move. 145 miles north. 80 days earlier. 72km per decade. The biological record of everything above — written in species distributions since 1972. The fish have already moved. The civilisation built on their staying has not caught up.

On The Record — June 11, 2026

This series began with a question asked in 2004 — whether the warmest ocean on Earth sitting above the most volcanically active seafloor on Earth was a coincidence worth investigating. Over ten posts built across a single day, June 10–11, 2026, the answer has been assembled from NOAA satellite data, JMA monitoring reports, peer-reviewed literature, federal trawl surveys, coral bleaching records, AMOC measurements, and the fish themselves.

The fish are the final and most honest piece of evidence. They have no ideology. They cannot be funded by anyone. They cannot be pressured to reach a particular conclusion. They simply follow the water that their bodies require. And for 54 years of federal survey data — 157 species, 145 miles, 80 days — they have been telling us the same thing.

The ocean has moved. The fish have followed. The question for the civilisation that built itself on the assumption of stability is how quickly it can learn to read what the fish already know — and whether the instruments that allow us to understand what is driving this change will survive long enough to provide the answer.

The Ocean Observatories Initiative — the instrument network monitoring the subsurface ocean from Alaska to the Gulf Stream — is being removed from the water in four days.

The fish don't lie. They don't have political agendas. They don't attend conferences or publish papers. They simply move when the ocean tells them to. And the ocean has been telling them — clearly, consistently, for more than fifty years — to go north. They went. We are still arguing about why.

The Convergence Series — Thomas Lamb · 2004–2026

Part I: Climate Science Revisited (2004) →

Part I-B: The First Eruption (2006) →

Part II: The Furnace Below

Part III: Indonesia SST Deep Dive — 41 Years of Data

Part IV: Going Blind — Dismantling NOAA

Part V: It Has Begun — JMA Declaration June 10 2026

Part VI: Two Roads to the Same Fire

Part VII: The Corridor — Japan to Alaska

Part VIII: Icebreakers for a Melting Ocean

Part IX: The Bloom — The Algae-SST Feedback Loop

Part X: The Fish Have Moved (this post)

DATA SOURCES:
EPA Climate Change Indicators: Marine Species Distribution · NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center bottom trawl survey 1972–2022
NOAA Fisheries HMS Study: Crear et al. (2023) — Atlantic Highly Migratory Species catch shifts
Mid-Atlantic Ocean Data Portal: Fish Species Through Time 1972–2017 (The Nature Conservancy / NEFSC)
Chaikin & Belmaker, Tel Aviv University — Nature Ecology & Evolution (2024): poleward shift = population decline
Van Westen & Dijkstra (2026) Communications Earth & Environment 7:197 — Gulf Stream precursor to AMOC collapse
Taylor, Jordan & Stephens (1998) Nature 393 — Gulf Stream displaced northward following ENSO events
Smeed et al. (2018) — AMOC in reduced state since 2008, Geophysical Research Letters
NOAA/JMA El Niño declarations June 10–11, 2026
Original framework: Thomas Lamb, Climate Science Revisited, March 2004
Research assistance: Claude, Anthropic · June 11, 2026

Thomas Lamb  ·  June 11, 2026  ·  Alaska Policy

Old Ideas, New MOU

The Alaska Hire Mirage — Twenty Years On

June 11, 2006  ·  June 11, 2026  ·  Hicklin v. Orbeck  ·  500 Members  ·  1,600 Welders Needed

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On June 11, 2006, I published a post on this blog called Old Ideas. It was a response to former Governor Wally Hickel's continued advocacy for Alaska hire preferences on the proposed gas pipeline. I quoted the full Supreme Court opinion in Hicklin v. Orbeck — the 1978 ruling that struck down Alaska's resident hiring preference law — and I closed with a single question:

"The education system in Alaska has not adequately addressed this. How many trained Alaskans will there be?"

Today is June 11, 2026. Twenty years to the day.

This morning, HB 381 passed out of the House Finance Committee unanimously and headed to the House floor. This afternoon, Alaska LNG and Alaska's Building Trades organizations stood together and signed a Memorandum of Understanding promising Alaska workers first.

The same old ideas. A brand new MOU.

My question from 2006 now has an answer. The answer is not encouraging. But there is something else in the 2006 record that has not been mentioned in any of today's coverage — and it goes to the heart of why the MOU signed today is legally weaker than it appears.

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What I Said Then — All of It

Three months after my Old Ideas post, I answered a KTUU candidate questionnaire during my 2006 legislative campaign. One question addressed the Murkowski gas pipeline deal and what elements were worth preserving. I wrote:

"The ownership will also give weight to an Alaska hire provision. Without it, the Hicklin vs. Orbeck case will carry weight in striking down any Alaska hire provision."

That was not a casual observation. It was a precise legal argument. The only mechanism that gives Alaska hire provisions real legal weight is state ownership of the pipeline infrastructure — a proprietary interest that allows the state to impose conditions on its own property rather than discriminating against nonresidents in a private labor market.

The Stranded Gas Act tried to thread that needle. It included ownership provisions and Alaska hire language together because the lawyers knew one depended on the other.

Today's MOU was signed between the developer and the Building Trades. Not the state. Not through AGDC's 25% equity stake. Not through any proprietary mechanism that would give it constitutional grounding.

It is a handshake between two private parties that cannot be legally enforced against anyone — and certainly not against the constitutional standard Hicklin established.

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Hicklin — Still Controlling

In 1972, Alaska passed the Alaska Hire Act requiring that oil and gas leases and pipeline agreements contain a preference for Alaska residents. The stated purpose was reducing unemployment.

In 1978, the U.S. Supreme Court struck it down unanimously under the Privileges and Immunities Clause. Justice Brennan wrote that Alaska could not discriminate against nonresidents without proving a substantial justification — specifically that nonresidents were causing the unemployment the law was meant to fix.

The Court found Alaska could not meet that standard. The unemployment was structural — rooted in lack of education, job training, and geographic remoteness among residents. Nonresidents were not the cause of the problem.

Moreover, the Court noted that the oil and gas was destined for interstate and international commerce — which further undermined Alaska's ability to impose hiring preferences.

Apply that ruling to AKLNG in 2026:

• Alaska is not experiencing unemployment — it is experiencing a workforce shortage
• The gas is destined for Asian export markets
• The hiring preference lives in a non-binding MOU between private parties — not a statute, not a proprietary state ownership condition

The legal foundation for Alaska hire on this project is weaker today than the law the Supreme Court struck down forty-eight years ago. In 2006 I identified state ownership as the one legal mechanism that could change that. The MOU signed today does not use it.

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The Answer to My 2006 Question

Twenty years ago I asked: How many trained Alaskans will there be?

Here is what the project needs at peak construction, according to the developers:

Trade	Workers Needed
Pipefitters & Welders	1,600
Engineers	1,900
Ironworkers	450
Electricians	400
Logistics	3,500
Total Peak	~7,000

Here is what Alaska's closest union local to the pipeline route actually has:

UA Local 375 — Fairbanks Plumbers and Pipefitters: approximately 500 members.

Their accelerated pipe welding class — the largest in the program's history — had fourteen students.

Nationally, the American Welding Society projects a shortage of 400,000 welders. The average age of a U.S. welder is 55. For every five retiring, only two are entering the field. Alaska is not insulated from this shortage — it is more exposed to it. A state of 730,000 people cannot produce a specialized construction workforce of 7,000 peak tradespeople on a project timeline measured in years, not decades.

The project needs 1,600 pipefitters and welders. The closest union local has 500 members total. The math does not work regardless of what any MOU says.

The education system did not adequately address this. Twenty years of pipeline discussions did not change the answer.

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The Borough Problem the MOU Cannot Solve

When thousands of workers come from Outside to build this pipeline — and by mathematical necessity, most of them must — they arrive in communities. They drive on roads. They need hospitals and fire services. Some bring families. Their children attend schools.

Anchorage Mayor Suzanne LaFrance testified to the House Finance Committee that AKLNG could cost the Municipality of Anchorage up to $173 million over nine years — even though the pipeline does not pass through Anchorage. Thousands of outside workers would use Anchorage as a logistical base, generating real demands on local government services.

Borough mayors along the pipeline route raised the same alarm. Under HB 381, the volumetric tax replacing the property tax brings in approximately 90% less revenue than what it replaces — not enough to cover additional students in schools, more vehicles on roads, or more fire and EMS calls.

The $40 million community impact fund in the bill sounds significant. Against $173 million in projected costs to Anchorage alone, it is a rounding error. The fund's size, qualifying communities, and distribution formula remain unresolved as the bill heads to the floor.

The MOU promising Alaska hire does not reduce the number of outside workers — it cannot, because the workforce does not exist locally. What it does is provide political cover for a tax structure that cuts borough revenue by 90% while the outside workforce those boroughs must service is baked into the project's construction math.

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Three Failures, One Signing Ceremony

The Alaska hire promise in HB 381 fails on three levels simultaneously:

1. Legally — Hicklin v. Orbeck requires that nonresidents be the cause of an identifiable harm before Alaska can discriminate against them in hiring. In 2026 the problem is a shortage of workers, not their surplus. I identified in 2006 that state ownership was the only legal mechanism that could give hire provisions real weight. The MOU does not use it.

2. Practically — The trades workforce does not exist in Alaska at the scale the project requires. Local 375 has 500 members. The project needs 1,600 pipefitters and welders at peak. A non-binding MOU cannot conjure workers who have not been trained.

3. Fiscally — Outside workers flooding borough communities generate service costs that the tax structure of HB 381 was designed not to cover. The Alaska hire promise draws political attention away from a structural fiscal problem for every borough along the route.

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Same Day, Twenty Years Apart

On June 11, 2006, I asked how many trained Alaskans there would be.

Three months later I told KTUU that without state ownership, Hicklin v. Orbeck would carry weight in striking down any Alaska hire provision.

On June 11, 2026, the Alaska Legislature passed a bill with a promise to negotiate a PLA, and a developer signed a non-binding MOU with the Building Trades — not through the state's ownership stake, not through any proprietary mechanism, not through any legal structure that Hicklin would recognize.

The ideas are old. The MOU is new. The math and the law have not changed.

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Sources: Alaska Public Media (June 11, 2026) · Alaska's News Source (June 11, 2026) · Must Read Alaska (June 10, 2026) · Alaska Beacon (June 5, 2026) · Anchorage Daily News (June 1, 2026) · Underground Infrastructure (November 2025) · UA Local 375 · American Welding Society · Hicklin v. Orbeck, 437 U.S. 518 (1978) · AS 43.82.230 · Thomas Lamb, "Old Ideas," June 11, 2006 · Thomas Lamb, "Answers to KTUU Questionnaire," September 16, 2006 · Thomas Lamb, "The Stranded Gas Act," July 2, 2006

Thomas Lamb  ·  June 11, 2026  ·  Part IX — The Bloom

The Bloom
The Algae-SST Feedback Loop
Nobody Is Modelling

Sources: Nature (2023) · Journal of Oceanology and Limnology (2024) · Nature Communications (2024)
Climate Dynamics · Science Advances (2025) · NOAA CoralTemp · Global Volcanism Program

The standard climate model has a clear causal chain: greenhouse gases trap heat, oceans warm, ecosystems respond. Algal blooms are a downstream consequence — a symptom of warming, not a cause of it. The data published between 2022 and 2026 tells a more complicated and more alarming story. Algae are not just responding to warming. They are actively amplifying it — and in the process generating the greenhouse gases that drive the next cycle of bloom.

This post documents the algae-SST feedback loop — what it is, what the peer-reviewed literature now confirms, how it connects to the submarine volcanic framework that seeded the original observation in 2004, and why it is not in a single operational climate model.

The Mechanism — How Algae Heat the Ocean

Phytoplankton contain chlorophyll — the same pigment that captures sunlight for photosynthesis. That pigment does not distinguish between the wavelengths useful for photosynthesis and those that become heat. When a bloom forms, it concentrates chlorophyll at the ocean surface. The surface layer becomes a solar collector — absorbing radiation that would otherwise penetrate to depth and warm a much larger volume of water. Instead it warms a thin surface layer very efficiently.

Global SST Rise from Phytoplankton

+0.5°C

Solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton raises SST by ~0.5°C globally — confirmed by multi-century coupled climate model simulations. (Climate Dynamics, 2012)

Local SST Rise — Peak Events

+4.5°C

More localised observations show SST increases of up to 4.5°C over just 4 days due to presence of phytoplankton blooms. (Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2024)

Bloom Frequency Increase 2003–2020

+59%

Global bloom frequency increased 59.2% and spatial extent by 13.2% between 2003 and 2020. (Nature, 2023)

Atmospheric Humidity Increase

2–5%

Phytoplankton-driven SST rise increases evaporation, enhancing atmospheric humidity 2–5% — amplifying the greenhouse effect locally. (Climate Dynamics, 2012)

The Full Feedback Chain — From Mantle to Atmosphere

The Amplifying Loop — Each Step Peer-Reviewed

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Step 1 — Geothermal heat injection

Submarine volcanic and hydrothermal systems inject heat into the deep ocean from below. Geothermal forcing accounts for nearly 20% of global ocean warming over the past two decades. The Indonesian arc — most volcanically active seafloor on Earth — sits beneath the warmest ocean on Earth.

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▸

Step 2 — Hydrothermal iron and nutrient flux

Hydrothermal vents inject iron, silica, phosphorus and other micronutrients directly into the water column. Hydrothermal systems contribute nearly 23% of the dissolved iron inventory in the entire oceanic water column. Iron is the limiting nutrient for Pseudo-nitzschia — the primary domoic acid producer.

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Step 3 — Warm water + iron triggers bloom

Warm surface water combined with nutrient loading triggers phytoplankton bloom. Bloom frequency has increased 59% globally since 2003, with strongest correlations between SST and bloom frequency in the Alaska Current (r=0.44) and Oyashio Current off Japan (r=0.48) — the Japan-to-Alaska corridor documented in Part VII.

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Step 4 — Bloom absorbs solar radiation as heat

Phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrates at the surface, absorbing solar radiation that would otherwise penetrate to depth. SST rises +0.5°C globally from phytoplankton solar absorption. Local peak events reach +4.5°C in 4 days. The surface layer becomes a heat collector.

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Step 5 — Warmer ocean releases more CO₂ and methane

Warmer surface water holds less dissolved gas. CO₂ and methane outgas into the atmosphere. When blooms die and decompose, they release CH₄, CO₂, and N₂O. A 2024 Nature Communications study confirmed phytoplankton proliferation intensifies climate warming through this GHG release pathway.

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Step 6 — Atmospheric humidity amplifies greenhouse effect

Phytoplankton-driven SST rise increases evaporation, enhancing atmospheric humidity by 2–5%. This amplifies the greenhouse effect and raises atmospheric temperature by up to 0.5°C locally. The Hadley Cell weakens and expands poleward — reducing cloudiness at subtropical latitudes and driving further warming.

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Step 7 — Higher atmospheric temperature drives more warming

Increased atmospheric temperature warms the ocean further. The ocean outgasses more CO₂. Permafrost thaws faster, releasing methane. The warm pool expands. The next bloom cycle is seeded. The loop continues — each cycle leaving a warmer baseline than the last.

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↺

Return to Step 3 — Loop repeats, amplified

Each iteration of the loop begins from a warmer baseline. The staircase pattern visible in 146 years of global temperature data — the abrupt step changes of 1977, 1998, 2016 — may represent discrete amplification events in this loop rather than purely atmospheric forcing.

Case Study — South Australia 2025: 20,000 km² of Solar Collector

The South Australian Karenia bloom that ran from March 2025 to February 2026 covered approximately 20,000 km² — an area larger than the state of Kuwait. For nearly a full year, that patch of ocean was functioning as a concentrated solar heat absorber, trapping radiation in the surface layer rather than distributing it through the water column.

At peak in December 2025, 9,400 kilograms of dead marine life were washing ashore weekly — the visible consequence of oxygen depletion and toxin release as the bloom died and decomposed. Less visible was the CO₂ and methane being released into the atmosphere as that 20,000 km² of biomass decomposed. Less visible still was the heat being trapped in the surface layer by 20,000 km² of chlorophyll absorbing solar radiation every day for nine months.

None of this is in the GHG emissions inventories. None of it appears in the energy-related CO₂ charts that dominate the climate policy conversation. It is a natural amplifying loop — seeded by warming, amplifying warming, releasing GHGs, driving more warming — and it is entirely outside the standard attribution framework.

The 2006 Connection — What Was Said 20 Years Ago

Thomas Lamb — May 28, 2006 (Part I-B of this series)

"While greenhouse gases contribute to increases in global temperature, the reverse is also true — higher temperatures exacerbate the release of greenhouse gases."

That single observation — quoted from a European study in 2006 — is now documented across multiple peer-reviewed publications as a multi-stage amplifying feedback loop. What was a footnote in a personal blog post is now confirmed by Nature Communications, Climate Dynamics, and the Journal of Oceanology and Limnology. The mechanism is real. The scale is global. And it is still not in the models that drive climate policy.

Algae are not just a symptom of a warming ocean. They are one of its amplifiers — absorbing solar heat, releasing greenhouse gases, and seeding the conditions for the next bloom. A 59% increase in global bloom frequency since 2003 is not a footnote. It is a forcing.

What The GHG Acceleration Charts Miss

The Forster et al. April 2026 chart showing accelerating CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O concentrations since 2015 is being interpreted entirely through an energy-sector lens — fossil fuel emissions, land use change, agricultural methane. That interpretation is real and important. But the post-2015 acceleration in all three gases coincides precisely with:

The 2015–16 Convergence

▸  Strongest central Pacific El Niño on record — draining the western Pacific warm pool above the submarine volcanic arc

▸  Largest Pacific HAB in recorded history — domoic acid from California to Alaska, toxic decomposition releasing CO₂ and CH₄

▸  Axial Seamount eruption April 2015 — iron and heat pulse into the Pacific, feeding bloom initiation

▸  Blob marine heatwave — 4 million km² of anomalous warmth, expanding bloom conditions from California to Alaska

▸  Indonesian peat fires — triggered by El Niño drought over the country sitting above the volcanic arc, releasing massive CO₂ pulses

Every one of these events generates GHGs. None of them appear in energy-sector emissions inventories. All of them were amplified by or directly caused by the El Niño event that drained the western Pacific warm pool — which sits above the submarine volcanic system that seeded the original observation in 2004.

NASA's 0.2°C Gap — What May Be In It

In March 2024, NASA Goddard Institute director Gavin Schmidt published in Nature that 2023 warming exceeded all known forcing factors by 0.2°C — and that no combination of proposed mechanisms could reconcile models with observations. The proposed explanations included greenhouse gases, aerosol reductions, Hunga Tonga water vapor, and solar activity. Not one of them included:

Missing Factor 1

Phytoplankton solar heat absorption — global +0.5°C SST contribution from bloom-driven surface heating, now increasing 59% per decade in frequency

Missing Factor 2

Hydrothermal iron flux from submarine volcanic systems seeding bloom initiation — particularly in the western Pacific, Japan-Alaska corridor and Juan de Fuca Ridge

Missing Factor 3

Bloom decomposition GHG release — CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O from dying blooms not captured in energy-sector inventories but contributing to atmospheric GHG acceleration

Missing Factor 4

Submarine volcanic CO₂ and heat injection — directly into the ocean and rising to the atmosphere. "How much — that will have to be studied." (2004). Still not studied. Still not in the models.

The ocean is not a passive recipient of atmospheric warming. It is an active participant — generating, amplifying, and releasing the gases that drive the next cycle. The bloom is not a symptom. It is a gear in the engine.

On The Record — June 11, 2026

Today NOAA declared the strongest El Niño in a generation officially begun. The western Pacific warm pool — heated from below by the most volcanically active seafloor on Earth, seeding blooms through hydrothermal iron flux, those blooms trapping solar heat and releasing greenhouse gases — is now draining eastward. The next phase of the amplifying loop is beginning.

The instruments that would help us quantify this loop — the Ocean Observatories Initiative, the NOAA monitoring network, the satellite systems cancelled by the current administration — are being removed from service as the most critical observational window in a generation opens.

The question asked in 2004 was simple: is it a coincidence that the warmest ocean on Earth sits above the most volcanically active seafloor? The answer, assembled across twenty-two years of citizen observation and now confirmed by multiple independent lines of peer-reviewed evidence, is: no. And the bloom is one of the mechanisms that connects them.

The Convergence Series — Thomas Lamb

Part I: Climate Science Revisited (2004) →

Part I-B: The First Eruption (2006)

Part II: The Furnace Below

Part III: Indonesia SST Deep Dive

Part IV: Going Blind — Dismantling NOAA

Part V: It Has Begun — JMA Declaration

Part VI: Two Roads to the Same Fire

Part VII: The Corridor — Japan to Alaska

Part VIII: Icebreakers for a Melting Ocean

Part IX: The Bloom — The Algae-SST Feedback Loop (this post)

SOURCES:
Ma et al. "Mutual feedback between algal blooming and global warming." J. Ocean. Limnol. 42, 787–801 (2024)
Shi et al. "Global lake phytoplankton proliferation intensifies climate warming." Nature Communications 15 (2024)
Sonntag & Hense. "Global climate response to solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton." Climate Dynamics (2012)
Xiao et al. "Coastal phytoplankton blooms expand and intensify in the 21st century." Nature (2023)
Guinaldo & Neukermans. "2023 North Atlantic coccolithophore bloom dynamics." Ocean Sciences 22:145 (2026)
NOAA CoralTemp / Coral Reef Watch · Global Volcanism Program · JMA Monitoring Report No. 405 (June 10, 2026)
Schmidt G.A. "Climate models can't explain 2023's huge heat anomaly." Nature 627:467 (2024)
Original framework: Thomas Lamb, Climate Science Revisited, March 2004
Research assistance: Claude, Anthropic · June 11, 2026

Thomas Lamb  ·  June 11, 2026  ·  Alaska Policy

Icebreakers
for a Melting Ocean

Senators Sullivan and Murkowski · Three Arctic Security Cutters · Kodiak and Seward · 2028
vs. Ocean Observatories Initiative dismantlement · Arctic sea ice record lows · El Niño declared June 11, 2026

On June 11, 2026, the US Coast Guard announced it will homeport two Arctic Security Cutters in Kodiak and a third in Seward — the latest development in a years-long push by Senators Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski to build Alaska's icebreaker fleet. Senator Sullivan called it an "unprecedented turnaround" for the state's Coast Guard and Arctic presence. Senator Murkowski said "homeporting them where they belong — Alaska — is the next essential step."

On the same day, NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency both confirmed that El Niño has officially begun — with a 63% chance of becoming a "very strong" event, potentially among the strongest in recorded history. Arctic sea ice in 2026 has tied the lowest maximum extent in 47 years of satellite records. And in five days, a research vessel will motor off the Oregon coast to begin physically removing the instruments that monitor Alaska's ocean conditions in real time.

This post examines the contradiction at the heart of Alaska's federal representation — and asks two senators who have fought hard for Alaska to fight harder where it matters most.

The Announcement — June 11, 2026

Coast Guard Announcement · June 11, 2026

Three Arctic Security Cutters to be homeported in Alaska — two in Kodiak, one in Seward. First delivery expected 2028. Infrastructure construction required before homeporting can begin. Senator Sullivan: "The announcement today is especially exciting for the people of Kodiak and Seward."

Senator Murkowski: "There is still significant work ahead at every level to build the shoreside infrastructure needed to support our growing icebreaking fleet."

The Reality — What The Data Shows

Arctic Sea Ice 2026

Record Low

Tied with 2025 for lowest maximum extent in 47 years of satellite records. Ice volume 15% lower than 2024.

El Niño Declared

Today

NOAA and JMA both declare El Niño on the same day. 63% chance of "very strong" event. El Niño accelerates Arctic warming.

OOI Dismantlement

5 Days

Ocean Observatories Initiative removal begins June 16. 900 instruments. Gulf of Alaska monitoring goes dark.

Icebreakers Arrive

2028

Medium icebreakers designed for seasonal ice. The ice they're built to break is disappearing faster than the ships can be built.

The Contradiction — What Both Senators Know

Senators Sullivan and Murkowski are not uninformed about what is happening to Alaska. They have demonstrated that clearly. On September 29, 2025, both senators signed a letter to the administration warning that NOAA spending cuts "impact research labs, competitive research grants, cooperative institutes, and fisheries management programs" and that the cuts "will lead to environmental damage, economic loss, and social harm across the nation."

Congress blocked the OOI funding cuts — twice. The administration dismantled it anyway through the NSF, following a Project 2025 document that specifically targeted the OOI as "the source of much of NOAA's climate alarmism."

Both senators know. Both senators wrote the letter. And yet today, on the same day the strongest El Niño in a generation was declared, the announcement coming out of Alaska is about icebreakers.

What Alaska Is Getting

▸  3 medium icebreakers — arriving 2028

▸  $300M base construction in Juneau

▸  $15.5B Coast Guard authorization

▸  Infrastructure "when it's ready"

▸  Tools designed for ice that may not exist

What Alaska Is Losing

▸  Ocean Observatories Initiative — 900 instruments gone June 16

▸  Ocean Station Papa in the Gulf of Alaska — real-time subsurface data gone

▸  NOAA research arm — gutted, labs proposed for closure

▸  HAB early warning capacity — as saxitoxin kills fur seals on the Pribilofs

▸  Fisheries monitoring — as key Pacific stocks already listed as overfished

Alaska's Fisheries — What El Niño Means Right Now

Alaska is the top fish-producing state in the nation. Its fisheries — salmon, pollock, cod, crab — are the foundation of coastal community economies from the Aleutians to Southeast Alaska. And every one of those fisheries is now entering the most dangerous oceanic period in a generation with degraded monitoring capacity.

Alaska Marine Conservation Council — June 2026

"Losing the information provided by Ocean Station Papa on how the ocean is changing with a warming climate is like driving down a dark freeway with no lights on."

In 2024 and 2025, northern fur seals on the Pribilof Islands died from saxitoxin — the first ever confirmed cases of marine mammals killed by this algal toxin. The roughly 400 Unangax̂ residents of St. Paul Island, who depend on the marine environment for subsistence, are now eating from a contaminated food web. The monitoring system that would track the spread of that toxin through the food chain is being dismantled in five days.

El Niño — declared today — historically drives the Gulf of Alaska marine heatwaves that produce toxic algal blooms, disrupt fish migration patterns, collapse forage fish populations, and starve seabirds and marine mammals. The 2013–2016 Blob killed an estimated 4 million common murres — the largest wildlife die-off on record. El Niño amplified it. We are entering an identical or stronger sequence with less monitoring capacity than we had in 2013.

The Ice Question — Are These The Right Ships For The Arctic Of 2028?

The strategic argument for icebreakers is real. Russia has 55. China is building more. The Arctic is opening as a commercial and military corridor and the US has been dangerously behind. Senators Sullivan and Murkowski are right that icebreakers belong in Alaska. That argument is not in question here.

The question is whether medium icebreakers, arriving in 2028, designed for seasonal ice conditions, are the right tool for the Arctic that will actually exist. Arctic sea ice maximum extent in 2026 tied the lowest in 47 years of records. Ice volume is 15% lower than just two years ago. Climate projections — before today's El Niño declaration — already pointed toward ice-free Arctic summers before 2040. El Niño accelerates that timeline.

Medium icebreakers are designed to operate in seasonal ice conditions — ice that forms in winter and retreats in summer. If that seasonal ice is gone, or dramatically reduced, by the time these ships reach their operational peak, they become expensive assets optimised for conditions that no longer exist. The infrastructure built to homeport them — the $300M base in Juneau, the facilities in Kodiak and Seward — is being constructed on permafrost that the Alaska Legislature warned in 2006 was already thawing under roads and buildings.

We are building tools for the Arctic of 2010 while dismantling the instruments that tell us what the Arctic of 2030 will look like.

What Needs to Happen — A Direct Ask

Senators Sullivan and Murkowski have demonstrated they can fight for Alaska. The icebreaker funding took years of sustained advocacy across multiple administrations. That same energy and persistence needs to be directed at the monitoring infrastructure that Alaska's fisheries, communities, and Coast Guard operations depend on.

Immediate

Stop the OOI dismantlement. The buoy removal begins June 16 — five days from today. Congress blocked the funding cuts twice. Use that authority to stop the physical removal of instruments already paid for by the American people.

Near Term

Protect NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service. Alaska's fishing industry generates $6 billion annually. The monitoring and management infrastructure that sustains it is being gutted. An icebreaker cannot replace a fisheries scientist.

Structural

Commission an independent assessment of whether medium icebreakers optimised for today's ice conditions are the right investment for the Arctic trajectory indicated by current monitoring data — before that monitoring data disappears.

On The Record — June 11, 2026

Today is a day that will be in the record. NOAA and JMA declared El Niño simultaneously — the strongest in a generation. Arctic sea ice tied its lowest maximum in 47 years. Three icebreakers were announced for Kodiak and Seward. And the Ocean Observatories Initiative begins its dismantlement in five days.

The Alaska Legislature warned in 2006 that the state had one employee working on these issues. Twenty years later the answer from Washington has been icebreakers for a melting ocean, open fishing in collapsing ecosystems, and the removal of the instruments that tell us how fast everything is changing.

Senators Sullivan and Murkowski know what is at stake. Their own letter says so. The question is whether icebreakers will be their answer to everything — or whether Alaska will get the science it needs to survive what is coming.

You can't navigate a changing Arctic without instruments. And you can't protect Alaska's fisheries, communities, or coastline with ships alone.

The Convergence Series — Thomas Lamb

Part I: Climate Science Revisited (2004) →

Part I-B: The First Eruption (2006)

Part II: The Furnace Below

Part III: Indonesia SST Deep Dive

Part IV: Going Blind — Dismantling NOAA

Part V: It Has Begun — JMA Declaration

Part VI: Two Roads to the Same Fire

Part VII: The Corridor — Japan to Alaska

Part VIII: Icebreakers for a Melting Ocean (this post)

SOURCES: Anchorage Daily News (June 11, 2026) · Alaska's News Source / KTUU (June 11, 2026)
Sullivan/Murkowski press releases: sullivan.senate.gov · murkowski.senate.gov
Inside Climate News: "Alaskans Reel From the Loss of NSF Ocean-Monitoring Instruments" (June 9, 2026)
Alaska Climate Research Center: Arctic Sea Ice Extent June 1, 2026 · NASA/NSIDC March 2026
ICCI: "2026 Arctic Sea Ice Maximum Among Lowest on Record" (March 2026)
Ocean Conservancy statement on OOI dismantlement (June 2026)
OPB: "Scientists lose critical climate monitoring" (June 3, 2026)
Alaska Marine Conservation Council: "When We Turn Off the Ocean's Eyes" (June 2026)
Alaska Legislature HCR 3000 (2006) · NOAA/JMA El Niño declarations (June 11, 2026)
Original framework: Thomas Lamb, Climate Science Revisited, March 2004
Research assistance: Claude, Anthropic · June 11, 2026

Thomas Lamb  ·  Originally published May 28, 2006  ·  Part I-B of The Convergence Series

The First Eruption
2006 — A Submarine Volcano
Erupts for the First Time
in Recorded History

Mariana Arc · NW Rota-1 · Daikoku Volcano · Nature (2006)
Alaska Legislature HCR 3000 · Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission
Originally: "Alaskans for Natural Global Warming" — thomasalamb.blogspot.com · May 28, 2006

Author's Note — June 2026

I was not a researcher. I was not an employee of any institution studying these questions. I held no grant funding, no academic position, no professional stake in being right or wrong. I was a citizen — a bystander — with a meteorological background from my service in the US Air Force, watching publicly available information and writing down what I observed.

That is what these posts are. Not peer-reviewed papers. Not institutional findings. A citizen witness record — timestamped, publicly archived, and now, in 2026, running parallel to events in a way that I believe deserves examination.

This post was originally published May 28, 2006. The original text is preserved below. Commentary connecting it to 2026 events follows each section. The 2004 post asked the question. The 2006 post watched the first evidence arrive in real time. The 2026 posts document what that evidence has become.

What I Was

US Air Force meteorologist. Served in Alaska. Studied upper air soundings, volcanic eruption data, Nested Grid Models. Personally briefed NASA pilots on Pinatubo and Redoubt eruptions. A citizen — not a scientist — with training that let me read the data.

What I Had No Interest In

Grant funding. Academic tenure. Institutional reputation. Professional advancement. Political alignment. I had every reason to stay quiet and no reason to speak — except that the data was pointing somewhere nobody seemed to be looking.

What This Record Is

A citizen witness log. Timestamped blog posts from 2004 and 2006, archived publicly, making specific observations about submarine volcanic activity and ocean warming. Not predictions — observations. The events of June 2026 are their own commentary.

I nominate Congressman Don Young as the honorary Chairman of Alaskans for Natural Global Warming. After spending months in the cold dark wintery days of Alaska, the past week has been awfully nice. And I have to say that for the past few days, Don Young has been the brunt of much criticism on his comments on global warming. Is he right? Yes.

The real story however is in a soon to be released study done on submarine volcanoes. The study will be published in Nature magazine.

The First Submarine Eruption Ever Observed — Mariana Arc, 2006

Source: Medford News / Nature, 2006 — quoted in original post

An international team of scientists has presented its findings from the first observations of the eruption of a submarine volcano that in 2004 and 2005 spewed out plumes of sulfur-rich fluid and pulses of volcanic ash 550 meters below the ocean's surface near the Mariana Islands northwest of Guam. Those findings will be published in Nature — just after many of those same scientists returned from another expedition to the site, where they observed new bursts of erupting lava.

Dr. de Ronde, GNS Science New Zealand — quoted in original post

"Even though 80 per cent of the world's volcanism occurs in the oceans, no-one has ever seen a submarine volcano erupting until now."

At Daikoku Volcano on the northern part of the Mariana Arc chain, Dr. de Ronde saw molten sulphur at 180°C on the seafloor. "This is also a world first. You don't expect to see liquid sulphur sloshing around in a pond on the seafloor complete with wave-like motions. It was incredible to see the sulphur bubbling away, instantly forming a crust which would then get dragged back down into the pond."

Both the eruption and the sulphur lake were striking because of the enormous amount of gases such as carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulphide that were pouring into the oceans. The Mariana Arc is part of the Ring of Fire in the Pacific Ocean, where colliding tectonic plates reach as far as New Zealand.

2026 Context

The Mariana Arc sits directly north of the same submarine volcanic system we documented in the December 2025 UP Marine Science Institute expedition — which confirmed active hydrothermal gas discharge in the Sulu Sea and a caldera in the Celebes Sea adjacent to the fault that produced today's M7.8 earthquake off Mindanao. In 2006 it was a world first. In 2026 it is a continuous, documented reality across the entire western Pacific arc — still unaccounted for in any operational climate model.

Flashback — June 14, 2004: What Was Said Before The Study

Thomas Lamb — Anchorage Daily Ruse, June 14, 2004

Man made aerosols are not injected into the upper stratosphere; there is no mechanical means to do so. This fact alone disproves what the writer tries to lead one to believe. Other natural occurring events that are affecting the climate are submarine volcanoes. This natural event has not been studied to its fullest.

There has been no complete study done to see the effect the gases that are injected into the oceans have when those gases rise to the surface and enter the earth's atmosphere at the surface and lower levels.

As I said before, in June 2004 — there had been no study done until now. The emphasized paragraph should be noted. Also what should be noted is the gas is warmer and lighter than the surrounding water and will rise to the surface. Carbon dioxide is making its way to the surface. How much — that will have to be studied.

No getting "rained out" here as the naysayers like to try to argue on chlorine and volcanoes. It is a matter of thermodynamics and chemistry.

2026 Context

"How much — that will have to be studied." Twenty years later, in March 2024, NASA Goddard Institute director Gavin Schmidt published in Nature: "Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2°C more than climate scientists expected. As yet, no combination of proposed mechanisms has been able to reconcile our theories with what has happened."

The question you asked in 2004 — how much CO₂ and heat are submarine volcanoes injecting into the ocean and atmosphere — is still unanswered. It is sitting in the middle of NASA's 0.2°C unexplained gap.

The Update — May 28, 2006: The Feedback Loop Identified

At the end of the original post I added this European study finding — which at the time was treated as a footnote. In 2026 it is the foundation of Part VIII of this series:

European Study — quoted in original post, May 2006

"While greenhouse gases contribute to increases in global temperature, the reverse is also true — higher temperatures exacerbate the release of greenhouse gases."

2026 Context — The Full Feedback Chain

What was a footnote in 2006 is now a documented multi-stage amplifying loop. Peer-reviewed research published between 2017 and 2022 has confirmed:

▸  Phytoplankton blooms increase sea surface temperature by up to 4.5°C locally through solar heat absorption in the surface layer

▸  Hydrothermal iron flux from submarine volcanoes seeds the nutrient conditions that trigger those blooms

▸  Warmer ocean surface water releases more dissolved CO₂ — the reverse causation you identified in 2006

▸  The increased atmospheric humidity from warmer SST amplifies the greenhouse effect locally by a further 0.5°C

The Alaska Legislature — HCR 3000, 2006: What They Were Saying Then

In the same post I documented the Alaska Legislature's own concurrent resolution — HCR 3000 — creating an Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission. What the legislature was acknowledging in 2006 is worth reading carefully in 2026, because every item on that list has worsened dramatically:

2006 — Legislature said

Coastal communities negatively affected by flooding and erosion because of delayed formation of protective shore ice in the fall.

2026 → Sea ice extent now at record lows. Multiple Alaskan coastal villages have been relocated or are being relocated due to erosion.

2006 — Legislature said

Permafrost found beneath approximately 80% of the state. Widespread thawing causing land to slump and erode, serious damage to roads, buildings, and infrastructure.

2026 → Permafrost thaw accelerating. Infrastructure damage now in the billions. The thawing is releasing methane — a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂.

2006 — Legislature said

Fish and wildlife habitats are changing, affecting the accessibility and viability of certain species.

2026 → Northern fur seals dying from saxitoxin on the Pribilof Islands. Pacific cod collapsed. Salmon die-offs. Mackerel fisheries at 20% of 2015 levels off Japan.

2006 — Legislature said

The state has only one employee working on these issues.

2026 → The federal government has now fired hundreds of NOAA scientists and is dismantling the Ocean Observatories Initiative. One employee has become none.

In 2006 the Alaska Legislature acknowledged every problem that is now coming to crisis — and had one employee working on it. In 2026 the federal government has answered by removing even that.

— Thomas Lamb, June 10, 2026

Original Closing — May 28, 2006

I am not sure the problem on the warming of the Arctic is going to be resolved. The natural events will continue to have an impact on all lifestyles in Alaska and adjustments will be needed in those lifestyles.

You can't stop mother nature.

Unfortunately, what has transpired is misinformation is being propagated as truth and Alaskan Natives are being used by environmental groups when it suits them.

2026 — The Full Record

In 2004 the question was asked. In 2006 the first submarine volcanic eruption ever observed confirmed the mechanism. In 2026:

▸  The Japan Meteorological Agency has declared El Niño today — June 10, 2026 — with 100% continuation probability

▸  A magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck the Mariana-adjacent Philippine arc this morning

▸  Active hydrothermal discharge was confirmed in the Sulu Sea in December 2025 by UP Marine Science Institute

▸  Axial Seamount on the Juan de Fuca Ridge — the same type of system you were tracking in 2006 — is forecast to erupt mid-to-late 2026

▸  The Ocean Observatories Initiative monitoring system at Axial — the instrument that might finally begin to answer "how much" — is being physically removed from the water in six days

▸  318 million people are in crisis hunger before the strongest El Niño in recorded history peaks

You can't stop mother nature. But you can stop lying about what she is doing — and you can stop dismantling the instruments that tell us how she does it.

The Convergence Series — Thomas Lamb

Part I: Climate Science Revisited (2004) — The Original Observation →

Part I-B: The First Eruption (2006) — this post

Part II: The Furnace Below

Part III: Indonesia SST Deep Dive — 41 Years of Data

Part IV: Going Blind — Dismantling NOAA

Part V: It Has Begun — JMA Declaration June 10 2026

Part VI: Two Roads to the Same Fire

Part VII: The Corridor — Japan to Alaska

Part VIII: The Bloom — coming

ORIGINAL POST: thomasalamb.blogspot.com, May 28, 2006
SOURCES QUOTED IN ORIGINAL: Medford News / Nature (2006) · Dr. Cornel de Ronde, GNS Science New Zealand · Anchorage Daily News ·
Alaska Legislature HCR 3000, Senate CS for CS for House Concurrent Resolution No. 30(FIN), 24th Session
European study on temperature-GHG feedback: The Star (Toronto), May 27, 2006
2004 prediction: Anchorage Daily Ruse, June 14, 2004
Research assistance: Claude, Anthropic · Republished with 2026 commentary: June 10, 2026