Sunday, September 28, 2008

The Fable Continues in Rasmussen's Partisan Trends

Partisan Trends New Rasmussen Reports Party Weighting Targets: 39.0% Democrat 33.4% Republican

Given that the population as a whole has given Congress single digit approvals, Rasmussen should be questioning his own methodology on using a formula that is based on the same methodology as used in 2006 numbers.

Here is what he had to say:

This week’s adjustment will have little impact on the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, if the partisan trends do shift between now and Election Day, it could have a significant impact.

During Election 2006, there was a notable shift in partisan identification favoring Democrats as Election Day approached. During Election 2004, there was a notable shift in the opposite direction. It is impossible to know which direction this will flow during 2008 (see month-by-month results). These shifts correctly foretold the election outcome in both years.

It should be noted that the current targets are fairly similar to the ratio that existed when Democrats won control of Congress in 2006. They are also fairly close to the make-up of the electorate in the Presidential elections of 2000 and 1996.

The current targets also suggest a significantly better environment for Democrats than they faced in Election 2004. When President Bush was re-elected, there were far more Republicans in the nation than there are today… and far fewer independent voters.

A better environment for Democrats? Don't think so. Not with the approval ratings of Congress.

What is also interesting with Rasmussen's numbers is the numbers that come out of the debate.

As for the candidates, 36% thought Obama won, 33% gave the advantage to McCain, and 31% were not sure. Partisans in the electorate lined up behind their candidate in a way that would make spin room handlers proud. By a 67% to 3% margin, Obama supporters thought he won the debate. By a 73% to 2% margin, McCain voters thought their man came out ahead (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Now given the difference in the partisan trend of 39% for the Dems and 33% for Republicans, McCain had 73% of the Republicans polled lined up behind McCain. But Obama had only 67% of the the Democrats.

But in the end, Rasmussen states that 36% of the voters thought Obama won and 33% thought McCain won and 31% were not sure.

Obama got fewer support from his base but still won by 3%. Don't think so.

Moving on to Congressional numbers, Rasmussen had this poll on the bailout.

Support for Bailout Plan Now Down to 24%

And then you have this in the headlines: Deal reached on financial markets bailout . I wouldn't put much confidence in what the partisan trend is and the methodology that gives Democrats the advantage. Since most of the financial/mortgage debacle can be placed on the Democrats.

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