Friday, May 29, 2009

Say What You Will But Facts Be Told on Daily Kos Don't Compute

Here is a posting on Daily Kos that tries to debunk the trend on Chrysler dealerships closing.

First, the claim is almost certainly not true. While things may have changed somewhat since the days I was raising money for a Republican member of Congress, auto dealers are almost overwhelmingly Republican. Pretty much by definition, if you’re going to be closing down auto dealerships, you’re going to be closing down an awful lot of Republican-owned auto dealerships. A quick look at the giving by the National Auto Dealers Association PAC consistently shows contributions going to Republican candidates by about a 2 to 1 margin, and nearly 3 to 1 in one recent cycle.

More telling, however, is the fate of minority-owned auto dealers under the closings. If the Obama administration were targeting political opponents for closure, it would seem likely that political allies, or at least those the Obama administration presumably favors, would have a lower closure rate than others.

It’s speculation on my part, but I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that minority-owned dealerships would come out better-than-expected if the Obama administration were using auto dealership closures as a tool of political revenge.

So what do the numbers show? From an article in the Seattle Medium:

Of the 789 Chrysler dealers who were notified that their contracts will not be renewed, 38 are minority owned...

At the end of April, there were 154 minority dealers in Chrysler’s 3,181 total U.S. dealer body network...

According to my trusty calculator, before closings 4.84% of Chrysler’s dealers were minority owned. What percentage of auto dealers receiving closure notices are minority owned? 4.82%

As pointed out previously on this site, it is not known yet how the breakdown is on minority dealerships that have been closed.

But the facts and trend right now are; of minority dealerships, you have a higher percentage being Democrat donors and in Michigan, you have no minority dealerships closed in the Metro Detroit area.

And of the minority owned dealerships in Michigan, you have at least one known minority dealership in Michigan that was closed and that dealer, Irma Elder was known to have donated to Republican candidates.

So given that there may be a higher percentage of Democrat minority owned dealers in Michigan and no minority owned dealers around Detroit were closed, this seems to go against the argument on the higher ratio of Republicans correlating to the higher closings of dealerships owned by Republican donors.

It is clear that the writer missed the mark and their figures on the facts don't compute nor make sense.

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