Monday, July 20, 2009

Josh Painter Has Stats on Palin's Field of Dreams

First, a shout out to the DNC operatives and their proxy bloggers here in Alaska.

Continue to thump along and fall on your own sword.... Your efforts are working.

Now to Josh Painter and the stats on Palin's Field of Dreams.

Parsing Today's Poll Results

A new Rasmussen poll released today showing President Obama tied with Mitt Romney and six points up on Sarah Palin in a hypothetical 2012 match up is already the buzz of the blogs.

Groups of political animals with different interests will be posturing all week long based on this poll. Romney backers, for example, will be crowing loudly over it, and we don't want to rain on their parade. After all, their guy made a good showing, and they should have some fun with it. While we don't think this merits a ticker tape parade, if they are looking for an excuse to party, this should qualify.

Sarah Palin's backers can also find some encouragement in the latest Rasmussen numbers. Being just six points back of the president, after another poll -- one conducted by Democrat polling firm Public Policy Polling in mid-March -- showed Obama with a 20-point lead over Palin in the same hypothetical circumstances. If one were to say the PPP poll is as accurate as the Rasmussen survey (which Democrats always do; Republicans will argue the point in Scott Rasmussen's favor), then Governor Palin has made a 14-point improvement against Obama in just four months. An April PPP poll had Obama ahead of Palin 53 percent to 41 percent -- a twelve-point spread. Today's Rasmussen results indicate that Gov. Palin has cut that lead in half in less than three months. But the 2012 elections are still years away, and Sarah Palin has not even started to campaign actively for 2012, if indeed she intends to do so.

The only group which will find nothing to help them put a positive spin on today's poll news is the collective of Obama fans. These results tend to support other Rasmussen polling which shows the president at his lowest approval rating since taking the oath of office in January. This is what Obama's supporters have feared the most. This is why they and their media hounds have been ruthlessly attacking Sarah Palin 24/7 since the day John McCain introduced her to the nation last August. The attacks continued even after the election was over and done with, and -- if anything -- they have actually increased since she announced on July 3 that she intended to resign her office before the end of the month.

The attacks on Sarah Palin will continue. But look for Mitt Romney, who thus far has managed to make himself a very small target to the Obama forces, to start taking more of his share of the heat. Alas, that's one of the "joys" of being a front runner in the wonderful world of American politics.

Indeed the Rasmussen Poll is an enjoyable coffee break. But all coffee breaks come to an end, and people have to get back to work. If the mission is to take back the House and reclaim as many Senate seats and governorships as possible in 2010, then the crucial battle is health care. Regardless of what you think of Dick Morris, we believe he was pretty close to the target when he said last month that health care could be Obo's Waterloo. In the words of Patrick Stewart's celluloid character, let's "make it so."

Update: PPP is out with poll results of its own today. PPP finds Obama leading Gov. Palin in that hypotehtical 2012 match by eight points and Mitt Romney by nine:

"The numbers from this poll also seem to indicate that Sarah Palin did not do herself any immediate damage with her decision to resign as Governor of Alaska. Her favorability spread of 47/45 is the best PPP has found it over the course of six surveys conducted in the last four months. Also, her eight point deficit against Obama is the first time it's been in single digits over the course of these monthly 2012 polls. She also continues to have easily the highest percentage of GOP voters holding a positive opinion of her."

Also, an ABC News/Washington Post poll released today shows an increasing number of Americans view Obama as an old style, tax and spend Democrat.

- JP

I have seen this happen in Alaska during the primaries where Palin will lose ground in polling and then adjust accordingly on the issues and comeback.

The fact that this woman has endured a shellacking by the press and GOP party members while her poll numbers continue to rise, should be caution to the GOP party hacks who are trying to cut her down.

Continue on the path of trying to cut her down, because a third party option is always on the table. And look at the numbers Palin starts off with.

Don't underestimate the effect of the Nuclear Option in politics.

Palin's Field of Dreams continues to march on..

Note to the boys and girls that are moving from McCain's camp to Romney's camp.

Continue to try and cut Palin down, you will have nothing left.

Prediction if Obama continues on his path of self destruction.

Palin/Romney 2012.

Bet on it.


Tbone said...

The attacks on Palin are coming from both the left and the right. They are both afraid of Palin. Palin can still improve her numbers and appeals to ordinary people. I think that Palin can help rebuild relations between Conservatives and Libertarians again. Which was damaged by the Bush years. I oppose Romney because of Romneycare. It has got Massachusetts in trobule.

Anonymous said...

Regarding the 3rd party option..

Today Rush said that he thinks Colin Powell and John and Megan McCain should be the ones that start their own 3rd party. Since they're the ones who hijacked the party in 2008 and pulled is into the sinking mushy blowing with wind desert we now roam within....

They according to Rush would be welcome to leave and get the hell out of our hair once and for all and we take OUR party back... I totally agree.

BTW, Rush as we know is one of the top Palin fans from the beginning.. Actually, come to think of it he was there before the beginning..

He would make one helluva cabinet member for Sarah Palin IMHO...

Please take the pay cut and do it for your country Rush.. There's going to have to be one helluva ton of restoration of freedom going on 2012 and beyond and we will all need to roll our sleeves..

Anonymous said...

Palin/Romney or Romney Palin. I could live with either. Sarah has advantages over Romney. Her strong religious views have a better crossover among conservative African Americans and Hispanic voters that went for Obama. In fact one of the first things Sarah should think about is finding A.A. or Hispanic conservatives running for office and go there and support them. The media would be speechless. This would elimanate that Sarah's 'Real Americans' were only small town whites. She needs to get into the big cities and compete. Her PRO LIFE stance and her belief in God will open those doors. If she can pick off votes among these groups that would leave her with only one major obstacle. The MSM sees her education and her knowledge as 'Provincial'. Either she'll prove them right or only the Northeast snobs will give a @#$#%. As well as her religion, PRO LIFE stance, and conservative agenda, she will be seen as a true outsider from the Washington mess. A loving mother of five, a sucessful woman who was not propped up by the feminatzis, and one tough individualist who wasn't deterred by her enemies, but in fact took them head on. The "Quitter" label will just melt away. She is a national figure that not even tough Alaska could have all ther own. She must avoid anything tabloid. That will be tough because you can guarantee those challenges will come her way. The nonsense questions like: "Are you in favor of the Bush Doctrine?" The American people held the breath for that answer.

Susie, Michigan said...

No one is 'afraid' of Sarah Palin. Seriously. She leads with her chutzpah, but there really is no substantive knowledge of anything related to national affairs. She thinks Alaskan oil is the answer to our energy and economic woes, forgetting that even if her beloved pipeline is ever approved, it will take YEARS to bring it online.
Loving mom of five? Hmmm..I don't know many truly caring moms who would take on a national campaign while nursing a special needs child and dealing with a pregnant teenager. Had she cared about her state and her family, she would have said "no thanks" to McCain..."I am a new governor of a state I love, and I have family me in four years." Instead she hid Bristol's pregnancy from them, not to mention the pending ethics issues. She asked the campaign to lie about Todd's membership in the Secessionists. Is that really who you want in Washington? Would saying no have not made more sense and given her time to get to speed on the issues she is ignorant of still? But no, Ms. Ambitious had to jump onto the national scene and then complain when she was found lacking by serious journalists who had every right to look into her governing of Wasilla (that pesky rape kit thing, the Alaska Secessionist Party affiliations, and the budget mess) and her other questionable decisions. After all, she expected to be VP, and no one knew her outside of Alaska. Her approval ratings were high because she gave every man, woman and child, working or not, a check for $3000 from the oil giants (is that not socialism???) The media was not unfair to you not remember what they did to Hillary in the primaries? Women are treated differently...and until people like Pat Robertson are gone, this is still the good old white boys' America.
We survived 8 years with a President who got his Yale education by virtue of his own affirmative action...a legacy admittance, and barely passed. We do not need another 4 years of someone who does not understand the law, the separation of church and state, and who wants to take away a woman's rights. Seriously. You cannot think she is a viable candidate. Look back at the Hillary debates and tell me how winking Sarah will stand up to Newt, Huckabee, Romney, and tough questions. It'll be fun to watch, but she will never get out of the primaries. And do you really think anyone will ask her to be VP after the mess she made of McCain's campaign?
The pit bull act got old fast (about the time her rallies were heard to yell "kill him" about Obama) and if she were 55 and 50 pounds heavier, you guys wouldn't give her a second thought. Because she can give you her pageant learned glances, and looks good in a tight skirt, you're all fawning over her. Give me a break.

Anonymous said...

I am not concerned about these polls. Rush, Hannity, and Huckabee do nothing all day but scare people into believing that Obama will ruin the country. Why do you think gun sales are up? They told everyone who would listen that Obama (who in fact has loosened some gun laws) would take away their guns. I wish. and Republicans call Obama supporters sheep.
I do not like all the decisions he has made, but I do believe that he is working FOR the country, the whole country, unlike the rich white guys who only care about other rich white guys, and so pass laws for their own benefit (or add signing statements to the ones they don't like.) This country is is terrible straits because we have neglected education, neglected the poor, and neglected infrastructure to borrow money for an asinine war against a country who never hurt us. But gee, let's break international law and moral law while we're at it, and spy on our citizens and torture anyone we don't like. Then we'll lock them up with no charges and no lawyers.
This is why Obama was elected, and this is why he will stay in office. Americans believe in law, and the Constitution and the Bible.
I have a question for all your Sarah supporters due to her religious views. Can you explain to me why abortion is so heinous (it is) but the death penalty and killing of innocents in Iraq, and torture, are all OK by your value systems? Either you believe in the 10 commandments or you don't. Why is is mandatory to save a fetus, but once they're born, they are virtually on their government assistance, and by the way, when you're 18 we can send you off to be killed. No hypocrisy there.

Anonymous said...

Did Palin create the 14 trillion dollar deficit?
Did Palin propose a 3.7 trillion dollar budget for 2010?
Did Palin estimate having a 1 trillion dollar deficit in 2019? The anwers are Bush and Obama to 1 and Obama to 2 and 3. All these smarter people are creating a huge mess.
Obama is carrying on the George W. Bush spending policies of the last 8 years. Obama is projecting around 8 trillion dollars of new debt by 2019. That means that Bush/Obama will add 13-14 trillion dollars to the debt in 16 years.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous at 7:08 A.M.,
Obama doesn't believe in the law. Where in the law does it say that the Government should control G.M.? Obama is not working for the whole country. He is working for the Far Left with a big government takeover. If he gets healthcare the Government will control 45% of the economy. France is 46% and Germany is 47%. When Obama took office it was 33%. Obama will have transformed the country into a European Socialist state in less than a year. Obama is adding Government at warp speed. Bush was bad enough as a big government Republican.
Government shouldn't run banks and insurance companies.
Government shouldn't run car companies.
Government shouldn't run healthcare.
Obama is going to continue his unheard of big government takeover.

Anonymous said...

Are you people for real!? Find a conservative African-American or Hispanic for Palin to support?! that's just exploiting them, that doesn't prove that she's not only an option for small-town whites. There's not a single one with any brains who would hitch their star to that sinking wagon.

To the poster talking about deficits: Honestly, if you knew anything about economics, the current depression is part of a natural economic cycle that was made worse through the Bush and Clinton eras. The reason Clinton was able to run a surplus was because he was using short-sighted financial policy. "W" just made it worse.

Also, to the poster that said Sarah Palin connects with ordinary people...since when did we want our country to be merely ordinary. We should want extraordinary people to lead the way, and this woman is by no means extraordinary. Reagan wanted America to be a shining city on a hill, after all, and she is simply not equipped to fulfill that vision.

She's a fine person, but there are many more capable people out there. Personally, I think it would be the best thing for the democratic party if Sarah Palin ran for President in 2012. It would be another landslide. At least give Barack some competition.

And to the poster talking about Obama creating a massive government your history textbook. What did FDR have to do during the great depression? Spend. It goes back to knowing your economics. You have to put money in to get it going again - Keynesian principle. It's just the way it works. It won't be like this forever.

The difference between the Obama and Bush spending is that Bush spent it on the military, whereas Obama is trying to help pull people and businesses out of a recession.

Just for the record, I'm not an Obama-bot. I was actually a big McCain fan and am far more moderate than most of President Obama's policies. However, some of the views espoused in this comment section were just plain under-researched. Instead of taking your views straight from Rush Limbaugh, do a little background reading and make up your own mind.