Saturday, February 13, 2010

David Frum is an Idiot When it Comes to Iran

What a bunch of nonsense...

Nations bent on nuclear breakout do not usually issue progress reports. They move stealthily, until they are ready to detonate a finished weapon. That's what India did in the 1970s, Pakistan in the 1990s, North Korea in the 2000s. By contrast, the Iran nuclear program issues press releases like a second-place political campaign. Why? Two possible answers:

-The Iranian nuclear program is not going very well. Lacking an actual completed weapon, the Iranian mullahs may seek to gain some of the political benefits of weaponizing by boasting and bragging. Watch out for us! We're coming! Any minute now! Getting closer!

-Might the regime be deliberately provoking a foreign strike? The regime is desperately unpopular. It had to rig the 2009 elections, it is buffeted by protests -- thousands more in the streets this past week -- the economy careens from crisis to crisis. The regime may hope that a foreign air raid will rally a disaffected population.

Whatever the reason, the regime's blatant goading does suggest that military caution is warranted.

Israel was concerned awhile back that there was a detonation... And then you have to question the recent seismic activity reported in Iran on February 11th..

Magnitude 4.6 and depth of 6 miles....

Compare it with a known North Korean test.

At 9.55 a.m. local time, a seismic event occurred about 45 miles from the town of Kimchaek, North Korea. It had a preliminary magnitude of 4.7 and a depth of approx. 6.2 miles. The epicenter of the event was determined to be approx. 5 miles West of the location where North Korea conducted a similar underground nuclear test on October 9, 2006

I don't think mother-nature had planned to have a tremor that day....

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