Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Interesting Breakdown on the Gubernatorial Race in Texas

Medina gaining most ground after 2nd debate

I have taken the BELO debate text message poll and scientifically weighed how each candidate is really doing.

The numbers are averaged for 5 and 6 pm since some of the same people probably voted in both polls and the numbers were significantly different. The 5-6pm polls were done before the debate and the 10pm poll was taken after the debate.

The numbers from this average 5 - 6 pm text message poll were weighed against the Rassmusen poll so that a "text message factor" could be obtained. This would set each candidate's 5 - 6 pm votes to match the Rasmusen poll. I then took the "text message factor" and applied it to the 10 pm poll and then factored in 11% undecided voters.

The results are below:

5pm 6pm AVG 10pm RESULTS
Hutchison 30% 24% 27% 10% 16%
Medina 42% 52% 47% 68% 23%
Perry 28% 24% 26% 22% 49%
Undecided 11%

These results show that Medina has gained significantly since the last debate by 11%. Hutchison has lost 17% while Perry has gained 6%. Perry is getting really close to the 50% + 1 needed to win. However, Medina is quickly gaining speed on him and once the poll data does come out (if ever) the media will place more focus on Medina than they have before.

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