Saturday, March 06, 2010

Huckabee versus Palin in the South


While the SLRC is coming up and Palin may be a big draw, the poll numbers in the South favor Huckabee at this time...

These conferences like the SLRC and CPAC are not representative of the general voting population. They are representative of a very specific organizational effort that does not represent the individual voter.

It's been assumed the South will be a source of strength for Sarah Palin if she decides to make a 2012 Presidential bid, but our early polling isn't backing up that assumption.

In Georgia we find Mike Huckabee as the leader with 38% to 28% for Mitt Romney and 25% for Palin. Palin has also finished behind Huckabee in recent polls of North Carolina and Alabama, and she's in third behind both Huckabee and Romney in Texas.

Huckabee won Georgia in 2008 with 34%, so this early 38% standing suggests he's picked up a little bit of support since then. Romney got 30% last time so his support is basically unchanged since last time.

Huckabee has the lead with both moderates and conservatives. Interestingly Romney outruns Palin with both groups as well, including a 28-24 advantage over her with conservatives. As has been the case in other states Palin is not getting any boost from female voters- her 24% level of support from them is pretty much the same as her 25% with men.

If Palin is going to do well in any of the biggest, most delegate rich states her best chances would seem to be in the South. But for now her poll numbers there aren't that great.

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