Indonesia, Sea Surface Temperatures, and the Volcano Factor: What the Climate Debate Still Gets Wrong
In June 2004, this blog argued that submarine volcanism near Indonesia — the most volcanically active nation on Earth — was a major unexamined driver of sea surface temperature anomalies. Twenty-two years later, the SST data near Indonesia is setting off alarm bells, and the volcanoes are more active than ever.
In June 2004, as the climate debate was heating up politically around the Kyoto Protocol, this blog raised a question the mainstream climate discussion was largely ignoring: what role does submarine volcanism — particularly the extraordinary concentration of underwater volcanic activity around Indonesia — play in driving sea surface temperature anomalies? The argument was not that human activity plays no role in climate. It was that the science was being presented with false certainty, and that natural forcing factors, especially undersea volcanic activity, were being systematically understudied.
Twenty-two years later, the sea surface temperatures near Indonesia are running persistently above average, the eastern Indian Ocean is a pronounced warm anomaly that is driving global climate patterns, and Indonesia's volcanoes — above and below the waterline — are more active than at almost any point in the modern monitoring record. The question this blog raised in 2004 deserves a serious updated examination.
What the SST Data Shows Near Indonesia in 2026
The World Meteorological Organization's most recent global seasonal climate updates confirm what this blog predicted would be worth watching: the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia is running a persistent, pronounced positive SST anomaly — meaning sea surface temperatures are significantly above their long-term average. This warm pool is not a transient event. It has been a dominant feature of the global ocean temperature picture for multiple consecutive seasons.
The WMO specifically identified above-normal SSTs in the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia as the primary driver of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole — a climate pattern that suppresses rainfall in East Africa and alters weather across Asia and Australia. NASA's own SST anomaly maps for 2025 showed deep red anomalies — temperatures running up to 3 degrees Celsius above normal — in the exact region this blog highlighted in 2004 as the world's greatest concentration of volcanic activity both above and below the surface.
Indonesia's Volcanoes in 2026: The Most Active Period in Decades
If the SST data near Indonesia is striking, the current state of Indonesian volcanic activity is extraordinary. In 2004 this blog noted Indonesia had over 130 active volcanoes — more than any other country. The current count stands at 84 confirmed active volcanoes with five active submarine volcanoes. And right now, multiple major systems are in simultaneous eruption or elevated alert.
Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki on the island of Flores erupted in July 2025 sending an ash column 18 kilometers — 11 miles — into the atmosphere. The eruption generated pyroclastic flows, cancelled dozens of flights to Bali, and continued into 2026. Mount Ibu on Halmahera island was recording 145 seismically detected explosions per reporting period as recently as February 2026. Mount Marapi in West Sumatra erupted nine times in the first weeks of January 2026 alone.
Most significantly for the argument this blog made in 2004, Tambora — the volcano whose 1815 eruption caused the Year Without a Summer, killing crops worldwide and dropping global temperatures — was raised to Level 2 Alert in March 2026 due to a significant increase in deep volcanic earthquakes. Tambora showing increased deep seismic activity is not a minor event. It is one of the most consequential volcanic systems on the planet.
“Tambora's 1815 eruption dropped global temperatures enough to cause crop failures across the Northern Hemisphere. In March 2026, it was raised to elevated alert status. That warrants attention.”
The Submarine Volcano Question — Still Understudied
The central argument of the 2004 post was that submarine volcanoes near Indonesia — injecting heat, gases, and mineral-rich fluids directly into the ocean — were a poorly understood but potentially significant driver of sea surface temperature anomalies. That argument remains valid in 2026, and in some respects the science has only confirmed how much we don't know.
Indonesia has five confirmed active submarine volcanoes in its monitoring network. But the actual number of active submarine volcanic systems in the waters surrounding Indonesia — across the Banda Sea, the Molucca Sea, the Sulawesi Sea, the Java Trench, and the approaches to the Indian Ocean — is almost certainly far larger. The ocean floor mapping that would allow a complete census of active submarine volcanic systems in this region simply does not exist at the resolution needed to answer the question.
What we do know is that submarine volcanic activity injects heat directly into the water column, releases CO2 and other gases that affect ocean chemistry and surface-atmosphere exchange, and can significantly alter local and regional SST patterns. The 2004 post specifically cited NOAA's own oceanographic research confirming these effects. That research has been substantially expanded since, but the integration of submarine volcanic forcing into mainstream climate models remains limited.
What the 2004 Post Got Right — and the Broader Point
The 2004 post was not arguing that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions play no role in climate change. It was arguing that the scientific discussion was being presented with a false certainty that ignored significant natural forcing factors — particularly the extraordinary volcanic system surrounding Indonesia — and that this intellectual dishonesty served a political agenda rather than scientific understanding.
That argument holds up. The persistent SST anomaly near Indonesia — running multiple degrees above average for consecutive seasons — is being attributed almost entirely to greenhouse gas forcing in mainstream climate coverage. But the simultaneous extraordinary level of volcanic activity in the same region, including Tambora showing elevated deep seismic activity for the first time in years, is receiving almost no attention in the context of SST anomalies. The question is not whether one factor or the other is responsible. The question is whether the scientific models are properly accounting for all the forcing factors.
As this blog noted in 2004, drawing on direct experience briefing NASA pilots during the Mount Pinatubo and Mount Redoubt eruptions: volcanic eruptions and their stratospheric injections have documented, measurable effects on climate. Submarine eruptions inject their heat and gases directly into the ocean rather than the atmosphere. The mechanism is different. The effect is real. And the concentration of that activity in the exact region showing the most persistent SST anomaly in the current global record is a correlation that deserves serious scientific scrutiny — not political dismissal.
“The greatest concentration of volcanic activity on Earth sits directly beneath the ocean region showing the most persistent temperature anomaly in the current global record. That is not a coincidence to be waved away.”
The Alaska Connection
This blog was written from Alaska — and Alaska sits at the other end of the Pacific Ring of Fire from Indonesia. The same tectonic system that drives Indonesia's extraordinary volcanic activity also drives Alaska's. Mount Redoubt, referenced in the 2004 post in the context of the author's direct experience as an Air Force meteorologist providing upper air soundings for NASA missions, remains one of Alaska's most active volcanoes.
The Axial Seamount — a submarine volcano off the Oregon coast in the same Pacific Ring of Fire system — is now projected to erupt in mid to late 2026, with researchers at Oregon State University monitoring its inflation closely. Pacific submarine volcanic activity from Indonesia to Alaska to the Pacific Northwest is elevated simultaneously. The climate models that drive policy decisions in Juneau, Anchorage, and Washington D.C. are not fully accounting for any of it.
In 2004 this blog asked a question the climate establishment didn't want to answer: what are all those volcanoes doing to the sea surface temperatures near Indonesia? In 2026, with Tambora on elevated alert, Lewotobi sending ash 11 miles high, and the eastern Indian Ocean running its hottest anomaly in the modern record, the question still deserves a serious answer.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment