Thomas Lamb  ·  June 26, 2026  ·  Convergence Series Update

The La Niña Forecast

On June 8 we documented the western Pacific warm pool — fed from below by the most tectonically active convergence zone on Earth — as the heat source for what is now confirmed as a record-onset El Niño. June 2026 anomalies are already exceeding what was observed in June 1997 and June 2015, both years of Super El Niño. The Niño 3.4 index stands at +1.74°C. The eastern Pacific Niño 1+2 region is at +2.97°C — beyond any analog in the modern record at this stage of development.

Today the picture extends further — and my meteorologist's instinct says this is the development that changes the long-range outlook fundamentally.

A Second Kelvin Wave Is Already Loading

NOAA Climate Prediction Center equatorial upper ocean heat data now shows a new warm Kelvin wave generating near Indonesia — the same heat source region identified in the original June 8 framework. This second pulse is loading at source while the first delivery is still at peak in the eastern Pacific. The pipeline is being refilled before it has finished delivering.

The first Kelvin wave — carrying subsurface temperatures 7.5°C above average in parts of the deep ocean — has already arrived at the South American coast, shutting down cold upwelling and driving the record surface anomalies now visible across the equatorial Pacific. A second warm pulse is expected to arrive in the eastern Pacific around August 2026, on top of what is already there.

The Forecast: La Niña May Not Occur — Or Will Be Short-Lived

Climate models are currently projecting a La Niña transition for 2027. My forecast, based on the Kelvin wave picture and the heat source dynamics documented in this series, is that this transition may not occur — or if it does, it will be significantly abbreviated and weaker than models currently indicate.

The mechanism is straightforward. The normal El Niño to La Niña sequence requires:

Eastern Pacific heat dissipates → trade winds reestablish → upwelling Kelvin wave flushes the warm anomaly → western Pacific cool anomaly develops → La Niña locks in.

A second warm Kelvin wave recharging at source before the first has dissipated disrupts this sequence at the first step. The western Pacific warm pool — already being recharged from below by sustained volcanic and hydrothermal activity along the Indonesian and Philippine arc — does not get the recovery window needed. The trade wind reversal that initiates La Niña cannot establish cleanly. The system stays loaded.

What Every Previous Super El Niño Did — And Why 2026 May Be Different

The 1997-98 Super El Niño was followed by one of the strongest La Niña events on record — 1998-99. The 2015-16 event was followed by a moderate La Niña. The pattern has been consistent: the bigger the El Niño, the sharper the rebound cooling.

But those events did not have a second Kelvin wave loading at the Indonesian source region during peak. They did not occur against a background of 14 years of continuous submarine volcanic activity at Heard Island adding heat to the Southern Ocean. They did not begin with onset anomalies that exceeded their own analogs before the event had even peaked.

The question marks that Brazilian meteorologist Bruno Capucin placed on his June 2026 comparison panel — against 1997, 2015, and 2023 — are appropriate. This event is already in territory those analogs do not cover.

The Implications If the Forecast Is Correct

A suppressed or absent La Niña means:

• No relief for drought-affected regions that depend on La Niña rainfall — Australia, Southeast Asia, southern Africa, parts of South America
• Sustained elevated global temperatures through 2027 with no La Niña cooling offset
• Continued suppression of Atlantic hurricane activity followed by potential explosive rebound if the system eventually flips
• Extended stress on food production systems already operating under the fertilizer crisis documented June 8
• The 318 million people in crisis-level hunger before El Niño peaked — facing a second year without La Niña recovery

On the Record — June 26, 2026

This forecast is documented here on June 26, 2026, ahead of the July checkpoint established in earlier posts in this series. The data that will confirm or deny it is already in motion — the second Kelvin wave is generating now, the eastern Pacific anomalies are already beyond analog, and the La Niña model projections for 2027 will either verify or diverge against what I am forecasting today.

My meteorologist's instinct, built on the framework first published in 2004 and tracked through this convergence series, says the La Niña is not coming when the models expect it — and may not come at all in meaningful form.

The ocean has a furnace underneath it. It is still burning.

THOMAS LAMB  ·  JUNE 26, 2026
CONVERGENCE SERIES — UPDATE IV
RESEARCH ASSISTANCE: CLAUDE, ANTHROPIC