Alaska Early Voting 2026: Older Voters Dominated the Lines — and the Numbers

Unofficial Senate update + age-group observations – 11/11/2026

On the first day of early voting at the Menard Sports Center, the line was mostly people 55 and older. Younger voters were sparse. That on-the-ground picture matches the statewide voter-file data on who actually showed up for early and absentee voting.

Age Composition of Early and Absentee Voters

L2 Data snapshots of Alaskans who had voted early or absentee (not candidate results):

• As of 10/29 (~61,000 ballots):
  65+ = 44.0%  |  55–64 = 17.5%  |  45–54 = 10.4%  |  35–44 = 7.7%  |  under 35 = under 3%
• As of 11/2 (~90,000 ballots):
  65+ = 41.1%  |  55–64 = 17.4%  |  45–54 = 10.9%  |  35–44 = 8.2%  |  under 35 still very small

Voters 55 and older made up the clear majority of early/absentee participation. The 65+ group alone was the single largest age bracket.

Party registration among those early/absentee voters was roughly Republican 27–28%, Democratic 18–19%, Nonpartisan ~19%, Unknown ~33–34%. Age, not just party, was the standout feature.

How That Lines Up with the Senate Race

Election Day only

Dan S. Sullivan: 78,394

Mary Peltola: 70,241

Sullivan led by ~8,153 votes.

After Early Voting was added

Mary Peltola: 107,848

Dan S. Sullivan: 106,583

Peltola took the lead by ~1,265 votes.

Current full count

Mary Peltola: 121,487 (~48.9%)

Dan S. Sullivan: 117,512 (~47.3%)

Peltola currently leads by ~3,975 votes.

The ballots that flipped the race — Early Voting and Absentee — are the same ballots that were heavily older. Peltola gained ~51,246 votes from those categories; Sullivan gained ~39,118. The age skew of early/absentee participation is part of the context for how the lead changed.

Remaining Ballots (Model Projection)

Definite remaining: ~36,682 (mostly absentee)

• Current lead: Peltola +3,975
• Projected final lead: ~+12,800 (Peltola 131,326 – Sullivan 118,503)

The model expects the outstanding absentee (concentrated in districts where counted absentee has favored Peltola) to continue the pattern. Whether the remaining ballots have the same age profile as the early ones is not known from the public data.

All candidate numbers are unofficial. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. Final certified results and RCV will decide the race. Age data comes from third-party voter-file analysis (L2), not the Division of Elections result files.

Summary

• Early and absentee voting in Alaska was dominated by older voters (55+, especially 65+).
• That matched what was visible in line on the first day of early voting at the Menard Sports Center.
• Those same ballot types flipped the Senate race from a Sullivan Election Day lead to a Peltola lead.
• The remaining-ballot model projects the lead growing further before RCV.

Check the Alaska Division of Elections for certified totals.

Unofficial analysis and personal observation. Informational only.