Alaska House 2026: Begich Lead Narrows as Hafner Draws Heavy Support

Unofficial first-choice results – race will go to ranked-choice voting

Election Day only: Begich led by roughly 9.5–10 points (~49.6–50.1% to Hill’s ~40%)

After major post-Election Day drops: Lead has narrowed to 7.4 points

Current totals (11/12 report):

Nick Begich (R): 123,241 votes – 48.55%

Bill Hill (I): 104,460 votes – 41.15%

Eric Hafner (D): 19,032 votes – 7.50%

Jim McDermott (L): 6,726 votes – 2.65%

Key trend: Early and absentee ballots counted since Election Day have been relatively better for Hill than the Election Day vote. The largest single drop went only 46% Begich to 42.6% Hill, cutting the lead by roughly 2–3 points overall.

Hafner’s share: Eric Hafner, running from federal prison in New York, has taken 19,032 first-choice votes (7.50%). That is a notably high total for a candidate who has never lived in Alaska and is not actively campaigning in the state. Those ballots will be redistributed in the ranked-choice tabulation.

Race will go to RCV: With Begich at 48.55% of first-choice votes, he remains short of the 50% majority needed to win outright. The race will go to ranked-choice voting on November 18 to decide the final tally. Hafner’s and McDermott’s second choices will determine the outcome.

Unofficial analysis based on Alaska Division of Elections data. Informational only.