Saturday, September 20, 2008

National Polls vs. The Battleground

Why is it that the MSM like to publish national polls but when you look at what is really going on, the MSM look dumb.

Case in point: The CBS/NYT poll this week that shows Barack Obama gaining a 5 percent advantage in the national polls. Gallup came up with the same, Obama making gains.

The RCP average can be found here :

One has to ask, how is it Obama is gaining nationally when Obama is losing ground in the battleground states. And McCain leads in the electoral college count here:

Obama was leading in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and now those states are a toss up. How is it that McCain is coming up on Obama in New York, but the national polls show Obama taking a lead.

This is a fact, even with the introduction of the Marist polling firm that is historically biased towards the Democrats.

There are 811 registered voters including 271 Democrats, 229 Republicans, and
273 independent voters.

Compare Michigan polls that were recently done:

THE POLL: Marist Poll, presidential race among likely voters in Michigan (17 electoral votes).

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 52, John McCain 43.

OF INTEREST: More voters say Obama has a better plan for changing the country's direction. McCain is viewed more unfavorably than the Democratic candidate. The economy is overwhelmingly the most important issue.

DETAILS: Conducted Sept. 16-17 by telephone with 806 registered voters, including 599 likely voters. Margin of sampling error plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for registered voters, 4 points for likely voters.

The survey by EPIC-MRA, released exclusively to The Detroit News, WXYZ-Action News and outstate television stations WOOD, WILK and WJRT, shows Obama leads McCain 43 percent to 42 percent. Another 10 percent of voters are undecided; third-party candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are at 2 percent each. When voters are presented with the full presidential tickets, including running mates Joe Biden and Sarah Palin, the Democrats lead, 45 percent to 42 percent.

The survey of 602 likely voters was conducted Sunday through Wednesday, amid the Wall Street turmoil that has roiled the economy and the presidential race. It has an error margin of 4 percentage points.

No comments: