Thomas Lamb  ·  Originally published May 28, 2006  ·  Part I-B of The Convergence Series

The First Eruption
2006 — A Submarine Volcano
Erupts for the First Time
in Recorded History

Mariana Arc · NW Rota-1 · Daikoku Volcano · Nature (2006)
Alaska Legislature HCR 3000 · Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission
Originally: "Alaskans for Natural Global Warming" — thomasalamb.blogspot.com · May 28, 2006

Author's Note — June 2026

I was not a researcher. I was not an employee of any institution studying these questions. I held no grant funding, no academic position, no professional stake in being right or wrong. I was a citizen — a bystander — with a meteorological background from my service in the US Air Force, watching publicly available information and writing down what I observed.

That is what these posts are. Not peer-reviewed papers. Not institutional findings. A citizen witness record — timestamped, publicly archived, and now, in 2026, running parallel to events in a way that I believe deserves examination.

This post was originally published May 28, 2006. The original text is preserved below. Commentary connecting it to 2026 events follows each section. The 2004 post asked the question. The 2006 post watched the first evidence arrive in real time. The 2026 posts document what that evidence has become.

What I Was

US Air Force meteorologist. Served in Alaska. Studied upper air soundings, volcanic eruption data, Nested Grid Models. Personally briefed NASA pilots on Pinatubo and Redoubt eruptions. A citizen — not a scientist — with training that let me read the data.

What I Had No Interest In

Grant funding. Academic tenure. Institutional reputation. Professional advancement. Political alignment. I had every reason to stay quiet and no reason to speak — except that the data was pointing somewhere nobody seemed to be looking.

What This Record Is

A citizen witness log. Timestamped blog posts from 2004 and 2006, archived publicly, making specific observations about submarine volcanic activity and ocean warming. Not predictions — observations. The events of June 2026 are their own commentary.

I nominate Congressman Don Young as the honorary Chairman of Alaskans for Natural Global Warming. After spending months in the cold dark wintery days of Alaska, the past week has been awfully nice. And I have to say that for the past few days, Don Young has been the brunt of much criticism on his comments on global warming. Is he right? Yes.

The real story however is in a soon to be released study done on submarine volcanoes. The study will be published in Nature magazine.

The First Submarine Eruption Ever Observed — Mariana Arc, 2006

Source: Medford News / Nature, 2006 — quoted in original post

An international team of scientists has presented its findings from the first observations of the eruption of a submarine volcano that in 2004 and 2005 spewed out plumes of sulfur-rich fluid and pulses of volcanic ash 550 meters below the ocean's surface near the Mariana Islands northwest of Guam. Those findings will be published in Nature — just after many of those same scientists returned from another expedition to the site, where they observed new bursts of erupting lava.

Dr. de Ronde, GNS Science New Zealand — quoted in original post

"Even though 80 per cent of the world's volcanism occurs in the oceans, no-one has ever seen a submarine volcano erupting until now."

At Daikoku Volcano on the northern part of the Mariana Arc chain, Dr. de Ronde saw molten sulphur at 180°C on the seafloor. "This is also a world first. You don't expect to see liquid sulphur sloshing around in a pond on the seafloor complete with wave-like motions. It was incredible to see the sulphur bubbling away, instantly forming a crust which would then get dragged back down into the pond."

Both the eruption and the sulphur lake were striking because of the enormous amount of gases such as carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulphide that were pouring into the oceans. The Mariana Arc is part of the Ring of Fire in the Pacific Ocean, where colliding tectonic plates reach as far as New Zealand.

2026 Context

The Mariana Arc sits directly north of the same submarine volcanic system we documented in the December 2025 UP Marine Science Institute expedition — which confirmed active hydrothermal gas discharge in the Sulu Sea and a caldera in the Celebes Sea adjacent to the fault that produced today's M7.8 earthquake off Mindanao. In 2006 it was a world first. In 2026 it is a continuous, documented reality across the entire western Pacific arc — still unaccounted for in any operational climate model.

Flashback — June 14, 2004: What Was Said Before The Study

Thomas Lamb — Anchorage Daily Ruse, June 14, 2004

Man made aerosols are not injected into the upper stratosphere; there is no mechanical means to do so. This fact alone disproves what the writer tries to lead one to believe. Other natural occurring events that are affecting the climate are submarine volcanoes. This natural event has not been studied to its fullest.

There has been no complete study done to see the effect the gases that are injected into the oceans have when those gases rise to the surface and enter the earth's atmosphere at the surface and lower levels.

As I said before, in June 2004 — there had been no study done until now. The emphasized paragraph should be noted. Also what should be noted is the gas is warmer and lighter than the surrounding water and will rise to the surface. Carbon dioxide is making its way to the surface. How much — that will have to be studied.

No getting "rained out" here as the naysayers like to try to argue on chlorine and volcanoes. It is a matter of thermodynamics and chemistry.

2026 Context

"How much — that will have to be studied." Twenty years later, in March 2024, NASA Goddard Institute director Gavin Schmidt published in Nature: "Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2°C more than climate scientists expected. As yet, no combination of proposed mechanisms has been able to reconcile our theories with what has happened."

The question you asked in 2004 — how much CO₂ and heat are submarine volcanoes injecting into the ocean and atmosphere — is still unanswered. It is sitting in the middle of NASA's 0.2°C unexplained gap.

The Update — May 28, 2006: The Feedback Loop Identified

At the end of the original post I added this European study finding — which at the time was treated as a footnote. In 2026 it is the foundation of Part VIII of this series:

European Study — quoted in original post, May 2006

"While greenhouse gases contribute to increases in global temperature, the reverse is also true — higher temperatures exacerbate the release of greenhouse gases."

2026 Context — The Full Feedback Chain

What was a footnote in 2006 is now a documented multi-stage amplifying loop. Peer-reviewed research published between 2017 and 2022 has confirmed:

▸  Phytoplankton blooms increase sea surface temperature by up to 4.5°C locally through solar heat absorption in the surface layer

▸  Hydrothermal iron flux from submarine volcanoes seeds the nutrient conditions that trigger those blooms

▸  Warmer ocean surface water releases more dissolved CO₂ — the reverse causation you identified in 2006

▸  The increased atmospheric humidity from warmer SST amplifies the greenhouse effect locally by a further 0.5°C

The Alaska Legislature — HCR 3000, 2006: What They Were Saying Then

In the same post I documented the Alaska Legislature's own concurrent resolution — HCR 3000 — creating an Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission. What the legislature was acknowledging in 2006 is worth reading carefully in 2026, because every item on that list has worsened dramatically:

2006 — Legislature said

Coastal communities negatively affected by flooding and erosion because of delayed formation of protective shore ice in the fall.

2026 → Sea ice extent now at record lows. Multiple Alaskan coastal villages have been relocated or are being relocated due to erosion.

2006 — Legislature said

Permafrost found beneath approximately 80% of the state. Widespread thawing causing land to slump and erode, serious damage to roads, buildings, and infrastructure.

2026 → Permafrost thaw accelerating. Infrastructure damage now in the billions. The thawing is releasing methane — a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂.

2006 — Legislature said

Fish and wildlife habitats are changing, affecting the accessibility and viability of certain species.

2026 → Northern fur seals dying from saxitoxin on the Pribilof Islands. Pacific cod collapsed. Salmon die-offs. Mackerel fisheries at 20% of 2015 levels off Japan.

2006 — Legislature said

The state has only one employee working on these issues.

2026 → The federal government has now fired hundreds of NOAA scientists and is dismantling the Ocean Observatories Initiative. One employee has become none.

In 2006 the Alaska Legislature acknowledged every problem that is now coming to crisis — and had one employee working on it. In 2026 the federal government has answered by removing even that.

— Thomas Lamb, June 10, 2026

Original Closing — May 28, 2006

I am not sure the problem on the warming of the Arctic is going to be resolved. The natural events will continue to have an impact on all lifestyles in Alaska and adjustments will be needed in those lifestyles.

You can't stop mother nature.

Unfortunately, what has transpired is misinformation is being propagated as truth and Alaskan Natives are being used by environmental groups when it suits them.

2026 — The Full Record

In 2004 the question was asked. In 2006 the first submarine volcanic eruption ever observed confirmed the mechanism. In 2026:

▸  The Japan Meteorological Agency has declared El Niño today — June 10, 2026 — with 100% continuation probability

▸  A magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck the Mariana-adjacent Philippine arc this morning

▸  Active hydrothermal discharge was confirmed in the Sulu Sea in December 2025 by UP Marine Science Institute

▸  Axial Seamount on the Juan de Fuca Ridge — the same type of system you were tracking in 2006 — is forecast to erupt mid-to-late 2026

▸  The Ocean Observatories Initiative monitoring system at Axial — the instrument that might finally begin to answer "how much" — is being physically removed from the water in six days

▸  318 million people are in crisis hunger before the strongest El Niño in recorded history peaks

You can't stop mother nature. But you can stop lying about what she is doing — and you can stop dismantling the instruments that tell us how she does it.

The Convergence Series — Thomas Lamb

Part I: Climate Science Revisited (2004) — The Original Observation →

Part I-B: The First Eruption (2006) — this post

Part II: The Furnace Below

Part III: Indonesia SST Deep Dive — 41 Years of Data

Part IV: Going Blind — Dismantling NOAA

Part V: It Has Begun — JMA Declaration June 10 2026

Part VI: Two Roads to the Same Fire

Part VII: The Corridor — Japan to Alaska

Part VIII: The Bloom — coming

ORIGINAL POST: thomasalamb.blogspot.com, May 28, 2006
SOURCES QUOTED IN ORIGINAL: Medford News / Nature (2006) · Dr. Cornel de Ronde, GNS Science New Zealand · Anchorage Daily News ·
Alaska Legislature HCR 3000, Senate CS for CS for House Concurrent Resolution No. 30(FIN), 24th Session
European study on temperature-GHG feedback: The Star (Toronto), May 27, 2006
2004 prediction: Anchorage Daily Ruse, June 14, 2004
Research assistance: Claude, Anthropic · Republished with 2026 commentary: June 10, 2026