Saturday, July 02, 2011

Poland, Dominos and Herman Cain

I know Herman Cain has made plans to visit Israel, but an interesting set of events are taking place in Poland that merit a visit by Herman Cain.

In contrast to my above belief, a while back in a commentary for Red County, I said the same about Sarah Palin, but to this date, Palin has not visited Poland.

In the commentary I stated:

Moreover, it is becoming apparent the war in Afghanistan is lost because Afghanistan is geographically near all of the turmoil that is erupting in the Middle East. And as Turkey is establishing strong economic ties with Iran, Turkey’s army is going into Kyrgyzstan and going to offer support to the Kyrgyzstan army.

And for those who don’t know, the key operating base supporting our troops in Afghanistan is Manas A.B. in Kyrgyzstan and Turkey is looking at getting the refueling contract that supports our aircraft that support our troops in Afghanistan.

The moves taken by Turkey are all about control and a ruse for power.

We had an opportunity to pull our troops out of Afghanistan earlier and as I stated in an earlier commentary in March of 2010, we should have taken measures to shift our focus and place troops in the Baltics and bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Then I stated a nuclear Iran would become Obama’s Waterloo.

A nuclear Iran is becoming Obama’s Waterloo and while the political pundits suggested that sanctions would work against Iran and attempts of espionage failed, Iran is still on course to produce a nuclear weapon by 2012.

That should make the followers of the Mayan calendar happy.

I continued:

Enter Sarah Palin -

Now, I am not sure what Sarah Palin’s political aspirations are at this time but when she spoke against the START, she became the voice of strength and she is correct on the position she has taken.

And the latest revelation about the START in WikiLeaks -- that the US agreed to tell Russia Britain’s nuclear secrets in order to get the Russians to sign the treaty -- should cause an outrage among all Americans.

What the Obama administration has done is put the U.S. at risk for the sake of political expediency, and those in the Senate who signed on to the START are enablers to a despicable act.

There was no need to provide Russia with information on what nuclear arsenal the British have. The START does not address the issue.

This latest revelation on the START should be a catalyst for Sarah Palin to visit Poland and the Baltics and do so to ensure that there are Americans who will not throw our allies under the bus like the Obama administration has consistently done.

It is time we put pressure on Russia to change its ways and show the people of Europe that the US stands with them.

Too bad for Palin she didn’t go to Poland because: All eyes are on Warsaw as Poland assumes E.U. presidency.

Cain the Pizza Man Deliver

For Herman Cain, an opportunity exists for Herman to learn from Ronald Reagan when it comes to foreign policy.

It was the Pope and Lech Walesa via the Polish trade unions that played a big part in ensuring the fall of the former U.S.S.R.

Today, Russia by selling its natural gas to Europe and Europe’s dependence on Russia’s natural gas reserves, a strong-arm relationship exists between Russia and Europe.

Russia maintains the muscle and uses it to control the political scene.

Russia also is using its muscle in places like Kyrgyzstan.

Mina Corp executives are reportedly unhappy with the terms of the new solicitation, under which the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) could opt to purchase just 10 percent of the total amount of fuel consumed at Manas, even if a supplier offered to meet requirements in full. US government sources say the new solicitation, issued in early May, is structured in a way that allows a Kyrgyz-Russian enterprise, Gazpromneft-Aero-Kyrgyzstan, to control 90 percent of the base’s fuel needs. With only 10 percent of supplies guaranteed to be in play, there’s not enough of a profit incentive for Mina Corp to stay in the bidding, according to one source.


One industry analyst said Mina Corp’s decision to pull out of the bidding, if accurate, would be a “major headache” for DLA. Despite being dogged by controversy and being the subject of USA congressional probe, Mina has maintained an unblemished record for reliable fuel deliveries.

Gazpromneft-Aero-Kyrgyzstan, the heir-apparent fuel supplier, is an unproven entity. Although the company currently makes deliveries of civil aviation fuel to Manas International Airport, it has no track record for supplying the military base. Gazpromneft-Aero-Kyrgyzstan is currently subject to DLA due diligence procedures, which are expected to be completed within weeks.

US government sources suggest that Gazpromneft-Aero-Kyrgyzstan is likely to be supplying a portion of the current fuel contract to Manas by early September. Gazpromneft-Aero-Kyrgyzstan is partly owned by a subsidiary of the Kremlin-controlled Russian energy giant, Gazprom. A Bishkek-based observer told that Gazpromneft-Aero-Kyrgyzstan’s lack of performance to date was because the Russians subjected the Kyrgyz side to longer and tougher negotiations than expected.

For those who don’t know, Manas A.B. is a key military staging ground to transport troops and washing machines in Afghanistan.

In a commentary in 2009 titled: Putin Gets All of Eastern Europe and The U.S. Gets a Lousy Washing Machine, I stated:

Which brings me to my point on Obama's and Putin's horse trading business that I pointed to here.

On another point, on July 2nd, the New York Times ran an article that put a lot of spin on the efforts of the countries that broke away from Russia.

One example is the U.S. base in Kyrgyzstan:

Kyrgyzstan’s reversal on Manas is a case study in canny horse trading. Russian officials, including Mr. Medvedev, have said they blessed the decision, and that may be true, but President Kurmanbek S. Bakiyev is the one who walked away with what he wanted.

Moscow wanted the base, a key transit hub for the United States’ war in Afghanistan, shut down; Kyrgyzstan wanted more money. In February, Moscow seemed to have achieved a master stroke — at a news conference announcing the pledge of $2.15 billion in Russian aid, Mr. Bakiyev said the United States would have to leave Manas in six months.

The horse trading that took place between Obama and Russia has been pointed out on this website. It started at the G20 summit and what was the end result? The United States gets to move no military hardware, only supplies such as food and support equipment. And the movement of the supplies will be monitored by the Russians.

We pay more for the use of the base and the monitoring of the goods opens the door for theft and black market of the goods.

Russia got what it wanted.

The important question in all of this will be who wins? Russia or the United States?

At the time when I wrote the commentary on Manas A.B., Gallup conducted a poll that indicated that a majority of Americans felt the war in Afghanistan was worth fighting:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans likely view President Barack Obama's decision to send more troops to Afghanistan as unfortunate but necessary. Since mid-2008, a majority of Americans have perceived things in Afghanistan to be going very or moderately badly for the United States, and 70% currently think the Taliban will retake control if U.S. forces are withdrawn.

In 2009, I said we should have pulled our troops out of Afghanistan, stationed them in Poland and Baltics so pressure could be placed on Russia to stop enabling Iran in acquiring a nuclear weapon and strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Meanwhile using our Special Forces and drones to take out the al Qaeda.

Unfortunately as it turned out, Sec. of Defense Robert Gates was against attacking Iran.

Beginning in his Senate confirmation hearing in December 2006, Gates has repeatedly spoken out against attacking Iran. After President Obama decided to retain him as defense secretary, Gates declared that "a potential strike on the Iranian facilities is not something that we or anyone else should be pursuing at this time."

The position taken by Gates was wrong; Russia has been supplying Iran with nuclear fuel but has not been sanctioned once and Iran is nearing its goal of having nuclear weapons.

And as a nuclear Iran comes to fruition, Iran will have a stronger influence over Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and for that reason we will see our economy negatively impacted by instability in the region and because of our own dependence on foreign oil.

So who won in the region?

Russia, but that doesn’t matter to Obama, in a new Gallup poll, a majority of Americans agree with the president’s plan to pull troops out of Afghanistan.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans broadly support President Barack Obama's plan to begin withdrawing U.S. forces in Afghanistan this year, with additional troops scheduled to leave by the end of next summer and the remainder by 2014. Nearly three-quarters, 72%, are in favor, while 23% are opposed.

How do Americans view Iran?

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are most likely to mention Iran when asked which country they consider to be the United States' greatest enemy. China and North Korea tie for second, with Afghanistan and Iraq rounding out the top five.

I have stated that Iran will be Obama’s Waterloo and the polling data suggests bad news for the president.

Interestingly, Americans don’t view Russia as our enemy, but when you examine Russia’s role with Iran, it is clear that Russia has played a role with helping Iran in their attempts to build a nuclear weapon.

Herman Cain Knows Dominos.

Herman Cain knows pizza and self admittedly, he doesn’t know much about foreign policy.

So Cain should take a page out of the playbook of the Gipper and show solidarity with Poland by visiting Poland.

President Reagan understood how important Poland was in the region and while Americans don’t necessarily view Russia as our enemy, it is.

When you have a country treat our allies poorly, you support your allies as was done by Reagan.

When it came to the death of the Polish President Lech Kaczynski, it can be argued that Vladimir Putin lied about who was at fault.

But to be diplomatic, the evidence points to the Russian controllers calling out the incorrect glideslope.

You can draw your own conclusion on why the controllers called out the incorrect glideslope.

And then there was the Viktor Yuschenko from the Ukraine, who was poisoned.

Some wrote about Putin’s poison factory.

Then there is Putin telling Europe to mind its own business when it came to Gazprom.

What did Poland say about its allies in 2009 while Obama is our president?

It is time now for a mature look, stripped of illusions, at our possibilities and our future," Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told Rzeczpospolita newspaper last week. "I think today we all know that if we are to look to somebody, we have to look to ourselves.

(emphasis added)

On a thread in 2009, I posted this:

Monday, April 13, 2009

Bad News for Poland April 27th if They Sign With Gazprom

April 27th

Polish gas supplier PGNiG PGNI.WA may on April 27 sign agreement with Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) to pump additional 2.5 billion cubic metres of gas to Poland, daily Rzeczpospolita reports without quoting any sources.

If they were smart, they would hold off on signing with Gazprom...

The Baltics and Poland need to strength(en) their ties.

Happy Baltic shoppers show currency pain ahead

As people from the Baltics head to Poland to shop, the Baltic retailers are feeling the pinch. But given the downgrading by Fitch, there should be some stabilization in parity between Poland and the Baltics currency.

Poland needs to strengthen the common denominator between itself and the Baltics. It is not Gazprom.

And this idea of having President Valdis Zatlers go to Russia is insane.

The Poles understood what would happen if they became dependent on Gazprom, so they did the smart thing and decided to call on the evil “BIG OIL” American companies and establish partnerships in developing the shale gas in Poland.

While Sarah Palin was out there attacking “Big Oil”, Poland understood the need for a tax regime that would stimulate production.

What you have is: Poland understands that tax certainty is needed for both Poland and the oil companies. And there is no other candidate who understands this concept more than Herman Cain.

Energy independence for our allies like Poland is important and candidate Herman Cain has the business expertise to develop strong economic ties with our allies while being competitive.

The American press like to make light of Cain’s pizza business background but Herman Cain knows the pizza business and I find it ironic that a competitor of Godfather’s pizza, Domino's expanded in Poland.

Domino's entered two new markets earlier this year, Philippines and Poland, after adding five new markets in 2010. The stock, recently trading around $23.46, has risen about 90% over the past year.

As Reagan said in 1981, it was important that we established economic ties with Poland.

That same sentiment holds today and while others are out their vilifying “Big Oil”, our allies are establishing partnerships with private American oil companies like Exxon.

I believe Herman Cain understands the importance of our allies having a secured source of energy and not be held hostage to nationalized oil companies like Gazprom and countries like Russia and China.

Herman Cain is the one who has the expertise in business to develop economic ties with our allies and manipulate the ties in a manner that can bring a peaceful resolution in a crisis through our own strength and the strength of our allies.

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